The future of care

Growing numbers of older people who didn’t have children may mean more paid-for carers

WOMEN born in the 1960s baby boom are twice as likely not to have had children as women born post-WW2. High levels of childlessness among the 1960s baby boomers combined with increases in life expectancy mean there will be many older people in the future who do not have adult children, according to analysis by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

While older people with and without children are equally likely to receive care, those without adult children are more likely to be in receipt of formal (paid-for) care than those with children. That is to be expected, as adult children are the most common providers of informal social care to their parents as they get older.

It follows that increased levels of childlessness among older people in the future are likely to increase demand for formal care.

There were spikes in births in England and Wales after the end of World War 1, peaking at 958,000 in 1920, and World War 2, peaking at 881,000 in 1947.

There was also a sustained increase in births occurring across the 1960s, peaking at 876,000 in 1964.

As these children aged, around one in 10 women born just after World War 2 did not have children, rising to one in five for the group born in the mid-1960s.

It’s not possible to estimate the proportion of men who are childless using birth registration data, but survey data suggests levels of childlessness among men are similar.

With people living longer now than in the past, the ONS expects this to lead to a high number of people who are childless at age 80 in the 2040s.

In 2019, there were estimated to be 23,000 women aged 80 years in England and Wales who did not have children.

By 2045, when the large 1960s cohort with a high proportion of childlessness reaches age 80 years, this is projected to increase to 66,000 - nearly three times the current number.

Figures for England show around a quarter of over 65s currently receive some form of care - 23% of those without children and 24% of those with children.

However, a lower proportion of those without children received informal care from friends and relatives (16%) compared with those who have children (21%).

Conversely, a higher proportion of childless older people receive paidfor care (12%) than those with children (7%).

Among all older people, spouses or partners are the most common providers of informal care for those aged 65 to 74 (6% get care from this group, 5% from children), but children are the most common care providers for those aged 85 and over (31% get care from children compared to 8% from spouses).