Covid denial What’s behind the conspiracy theory?

IT is a late summer’s day on Bristol’s College Green, as indie anthem Can You Dig It? floats through the warm air.

Around a dozen people, some shirtless in the afternoon heat, are gathered on the grass, smiling and talking. They are spaced out in groups of no more than six, in line with coronavirus restrictions.

Passers-by might be unaware the event is a protest. It is unlikely many would know it was staged by Covid-19 conspiracy group Stand Up Bristol, which opposes lockdown and mandatory vaccines.

The serene scenes of last Monday hardly seem a cause for concern. A closer look, though, at the conspiracy theories around coronavirus suggests they are gaining traction.

Stand Up Bristol has 2,000 members on Facebook. On Monday, the group warned Bristol Mayor Marvin Rees it will “seize public buildings” if he does not respond within a month to accusations of “treason” in supporting lockdown. The threat cited the Magna Carta.

Some 20 per cent of people in England believe the virus is a hoax, 40 per cent think it is an attempt by the powerful to “gain control” and 60 per cent feel the Government is misleading the public about the cause.

Those were the findings of an Oxford University study from May, when public displays of anger over restrictions were far less prevalent than they have been in recent weeks. One Trafalgar Square rally last month attracted more than 10,000 Covid-deniers.

What is happening in the minds of these people, and how dangerous are their theories? We asked Prof Stephan Lewandowsky, a cognitive psychology expert at the University of Bristol.

“Any pandemic will give rise to conspiracy theories,” Prof Lewandowsky said. “It has done so for the last 500 years, as far as we know - every time.

“We get it after mass shootings in the US, where people deny they took place, like with Sandy Hook. It happens after any traumatic event that makes people feel they don’t have full control over their lives.”

This loss of control, he added, is the “primary ingredient”.

“People like having enemies, which to me sounds strange, but for some people it reduces uncertainty,” he said. “The moment you can blame someone, you can imagine the world would be a better place if you got rid of them. That, for some people, is easier to accept than random events.

“Some bat sneezed in China and now we’re locked down. For some people, it’s easier to think Bill Gates is trying to implant microchips in our heads and that’s why we have to stay home.”

Many Covid-deniers believe in other conspiracies. One example is Stand Up Bristol’s opposition to “dangerous 5G towers”. Another is David Icke – who believes the Royal Family are shape-shifting lizards – and climate change denier Piers Corbyn both speaking at last month’s Trafalgar Square lockdown protest. The event even attracted QAnon followers, who say devilworshipping celebrities and billionaires run the world while engaging in paedophilia and the harvesting of a life-extending chemical from the blood of abused children.

Prof Lewandowsky believes the feeling of lost control has combined with other factors to create a perfect storm for coronavirus conspiracies.

He believes the political landscape has made it easier for people to veer from facts and evidence.

“Some influential politicians have a very challenged relationship with the truth,” he said. “So when that happens and becomes acceptable, it becomes easier for people to believe in theories.

“There are also some politicians who are helping to spread the conspiracy theories. Donald Trump is a master of giving ‘nudge nudge, wink wink’ support to them, then denying it.”

The US President claimed in July the “deep state” was delaying the coronavirus vaccine until after the presidential election. He also said he was confident the virus originated in a Chinese lab, despite his own intelligence service finding no evidence of this.

When people rebel against Covid restrictions, it might not always be simply because they think the virus is a hoax, says Prof Lewandowsky.

“It could be those people can’t be bothered to wear a mask because it’s inconvenient, and they then construct a reason to justify their reluctance,” he said.

If Covid-deniers have a similar thought process, would they be aware their beliefs stem from wanting to “get off the hook”?

Prof Lewandowsky said: “I susbelievers, pect it’s probably deliberate.

“It’s far more likely they hate masks, they hear somewhere the virus is a hoax, and then they shrug their shoulders and think, ‘That’s it.’”

A striking thing about Stand Up Bristol is the sense of certainty in its beliefs. One of its College Green speakers promised “irrefutable proof” the pandemic was “planned long in advance”.

It raises the question of whether all Covid-deniers are so certain about their theory, suggests Prof Lewandowsky.

He said: “We know a lot of people who express these narratives are not hardcore believers. For those people, a correction is effective. However, there is a subset of people who are hardcore not totally

❝ Any pandemic will give rise to conspiracy theories. It has done so for the last 500 years, as far as we know – every time ... it happens after any traumatic event that makes people feel they don’t have full control over their lives

for whom conspiracy has become a part of their identity. For them, any attempt to correct it will make them believe more vociferously.”

Prof Lewandowsky believes “hardcore believers” in Covid conspiracies account for about five to 10 per cent of people in the UK.

The threat Covid-deniers pose is hard to judge. In Bristol, there have been concerns over the actions of Stand Up Bristol member Aron Walton, a tattooist at Gloucester Road’s Holey Skin.

Mr Walton freely admitted he did not “consent” to Test and Trace earlier this month, after being on a flight to Bristol Airport with at least three confirmed coronavirus cases.

The conspiracy theories have also affected schools. The Olympus Trust, which runs nine in and around Bristol, has asked parents to wear masks at the school gates after some who “think there’s no virus” failed to respect social distancing.

Prof Lewandowsky said: If people don’t stick to social distancing and masks, that’s a serious problem. I’m also concerned because it further undermines trust in society and people’s appreciation for evidence.”

What matters in the end, he says, is how people behave.

“If it is mandatory to wear a mask in stores and people won’t be let in if they don’t, it doesn’t really matter what the person behind the mask is thinking,” he added.