Coronavirus Death rate could hit 200 a day

THE UK could see 200 or more deaths per day by mid-November if the current rate of infection is not halted, the Government’s chief scientific adviser has warned, as ministers consider further restrictions on socialising.

Sir Patrick Vallance said the “vast majority of the population remain susceptible” to catching coronavirus and the current situation required swift action to bring the case numbers down.

He added that if current infection rates continue, the UK could see around 50,000 cases a day by the middle of October.

It comes as ministers make final decisions on what national measures are needed to tackle rising cases, with Health Secretary Matt Hancock strongly hinting there would be restrictions to the way people socialise.

In the first televised address alongside England’s chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty that was not attended by politicians, Sir Patrick said there was “no doubt” the UK was seeing increasing cases of Covid-19 among all age groups.

He said it was “not a prediction”, but the current doubling of cases every seven days could lead to a dramatic rise in hospitalisations and deaths.

In mid-September, around 3,000 new cases were recorded every day in the UK, he said.

And Bristol’s director of public health has also warned we are at the “foot of the second wave” of coronavirus.

Christina Gray said Covid-19 rates in communities were higher than official figures suggested because national problems and delays with testing were giving an incomplete picture of the reality on the ground.

But she said we have a “fighting chance” of avoiding governmentenforced local lockdowns seen in the North and the Midlands because Bristol and the South West have had the lowest levels of cases throughout the pandemic.

Speaking at a meeting of the city’s night-time economy group

Night Watch, which includes bar, restaurant and nightclub owners, Ms Gray said: “Have no doubt about it, we are at the foot of the second wave, but we’ve got more tools and are better equipped to deal with it.

“But there are problems with the national testing system, which is affecting the time it is taking the test results to come back.

“That means our published rate is not as reliable as it was, and it will certainly be an under-representation of the level of rate that is in the community.

“I don’t believe for one minute we have gone down that much.

“We might have stabilised, but it doesn’t feel right to me. Until about 10 days ago you could get a test in hours at the local testing sites.

“The rate we’ve got at the moment equates to 70 or 80 positive cases in a week in a city of about half a million.

“With all our churns and comings and goings, that is actually pretty good going. So we have a fighting chance.

“But in order to not get to where the north and West Midlands are we have got to keep our foot on the gas and not get complacent.”

She told the remote meeting that young adults were chiefly responsible for unwittingly spreading the virus. She said: “What is driving our numbers locally is social mixing ... This is absolutely not a criticism of younger people... This is the worst time to be a young adult.”