Virus ‘Cases to hit new highs – but hospitalisations are currently low’
THE number of Covid-19 cases confirmed in Bristol is expected to rise above what we have seen in previous waves, Bristol’s director of public health has said.
Christina Gray said that Bristol’s infection rate reached about 500 per 100,000 at the second peak but that, by the end of this week, the city will be above 400 per 100,000.
She said national modelling, Sage and the Government are saying that Covid-19 cases across the country will reach levels we have not seen before, and that it appears this will be the case in Bristol as well.
The news comes as Health Secretary Sajid Javid has said that 100,000 people a day may be testing positive by August 16, when self-isolation rules change.
Ms Gray said: “We are quite close to what we got to at the last peak on the second wave but it is a very different presentation.
“There are many fewer people in hospital and most of the infections are in the younger age groups, whereas before the infections were much more widespread and in older age groups and we had many people in hospital.
“That is not just Bristol, that is the pattern across the country.”
Ms Gray said it is not known by how much cases could rise in the city, but that infections tend to go in waves.
She said they expect this wave would reach its natural peak within the next three or four weeks, but that we will be reaching that peak as all restrictions are lifted.
“We can model in terms of what
we currently have, but people’s behaviours when the restrictions come off are difficult to predict,” she continued. “In terms of what we can say, we expect cases to continue rising for the next few weeks.
“We will be watching carefully over the summer and, as the restrictions come off, what that does to case rates.”
At present central areas are seeing more cases because of their younger population, she continued.
Ms Gray said the last time there was a pandemic of this scale was in 1919 and described the situation as
unprecedented.
“Higher rates will translate, to some degree, into older age groups and the more virus that circulates, the more risk there is that the virus manages to throw out a strain which can evade immunity,” she added.
Speaking at a press briefing yesterday, Bristol mayor Marvin Rees said Bristol, and the country as a whole, is facing a precarious time because of the virus.
He said Bristol has seen a sharp increase in cases in the past month, adding: “I have had real concerns about stepping away from any firm, national directions.
“My concerns are, if you leave it up to an individual’s decision, that leaves space for confusion, chaos and conflict.
“I don’t think it is good governance to simply say ‘we are going to rely on common sense,’ at the very least you should ask for some graciousness.
“I think there is a lot of risk and I don’t think adequate consideration has been taken of the level of risk that we are now going to be facing.”