Grand National prospects look good for casual punters
YOUR friends and relatives with no knowledge of racing may be on a winner in the Grand National this year.
While there are no champions in the field, the overall standard can never have been higher. None of the 40 scheduled starters are rated less than 143.
The top weights are classy or have shown good form this season. Some of the bottom weights are up-and-coming, and have the potential to better their handicap mark, which was awarded almost two months ago.
Others used to be more highly rated but have lost their form – and may yet recover it. All in all, none of the runners can be ruled out.
So, when once-a-year punters and uncles and aunties pick an outsider they can’t be dismissed out of hand just because it’s a grey, or they like the owner’s colours, or the horse, jockey or trainer is named after a relative.
The class horse with recent form, that’s demonstrated stamina up to 3m6f, from a top stable, with a top rider, is Delta Work - 8/1 is not all that generous seeing as trainer Gordon Elliott has been short of winners for weeks.
However, if some of his horses should run well today those fears can be set aside. The snag is that Delta Work’s odds will shorten.
Snow Leopardess, a grey mare who won over the National fences in the autumn, is the fairytale runner. She had a year off to have a foal and came back to racing better than ever. She only just lasted home for her gallant victory in the Becher Chase and has a mile more to travel on Saturday, so at 7/1 she is short enough.
Longhouse Poet, at about 16/1, took on a big handicap chase in Ireland in January in a way that suggested there might be more to come from him. Run Wild Fred performed a similar feat in November. He appears handicapped to the hilt and is another Elliott runner, but has the inestimable Davy Russell on board and there are worse 22/1 shots.
The Waley-Cohen family only ever have a few horses, but they’re invariably useful. Their brown and orange colours have been successful at Aintree in the past and are overdue for more.
Their recent acquisition Noble Yeats is just seven years old and wasn’t far behind Ahoy Senor two runs ago - 50/1 is fair enough with normal each way terms but many bookies will offer extra places, with reduced odds, naturally. A price of 28/1 to finish in the first six might be a better option on this one.
I’ve mentioned quite a few here, but each of the 40 runners has a chance and you may want to have two or three small bets in case your main fancy falls early on or – just as annoying – doesn’t get mentioned in the commentary at all.
Do not bet at starting price; the bookmakers shorten all the odds in the last few minutes. Take whatever is the current price. And don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.
The rest of the Aintree card is excellent. Edwardstone will be odds on for the 3.00 but Willie Mullins’ Gentleman De Mee bypassed Cheltenham for this and may upset the favourite. In the 3.35 Flooring Porter should confirm Stayers Hurdle form with Thyme Hill and Champ.
The 4.15 sees a handicap snip in Shan Blue. He looked set to win the Charlie Hall in October by a long way when coming down at the third last. Because he fell so far out the handicapper could not raise his rating, so he is running off the same mark of 148. His best form is on flat tracks. Ignore his run last time out at Cheltenham, where he has never finished closer than fifth.
By way of contrast, Bath’s season begins with an evening meeting on Thursday. The first of seven races is due off at 5.30.