Elections Power up for grabs as system changes
BRISTOL voters go to the polls today for elections that will help determine the future of our city as it heads towards a new decade of challenge and opportunity.
All council seats are up for grabs, while the job of Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Commissioner is also up for re-election.
No matter what the results, there will be a host of new faces in the Bristol City Council chamber.
Several senior Labour councillors who have served in Mayor Marvin Rees’s cabinet over the last eight years announced that they are standing down, including both deputy mayors, along with a number of long-serving backbenchers.
There are also some changes of political allegiance among this year’s candidates.
The authority is moving from a mayoral model to a system run by decision-making policy committees following a landmark referendum in 2022 where residents voted to scrap the position of a directly elected mayor, introduced a decade earlier.
It means the Greens, who currently have the most councillors with 24 but have been excluded from the cabinet because there is no obligation on the mayor to include them, are far more likely to be in positions of power.
Labour has 23 members, the Conservatives 14 and the Lib Dems five.
There are also two Knowle Community Party councillors who formed their own breakaway party shortly after being voted in as Lib Dems at the 2021 local elections, along with two independents who were previously a Green and a Labour representative.
The total needed for one group to have an overall majority is 36, although alternatives include two or more parties forming a coalition to get past that finishing line, or the biggest group could run the council as a minority administration.
Independent statistician Nigel Marriott, from Bath, who is credited with the most accurate forecast of the last General Election, even beating the national exit poll, has crunched the numbers.
The overall result is expected to depend heavily on what happens in the wards that are straight fights between Labour and the Greens where they finished first and second at the last local elections three years ago.
Mr Marriott believes “split” wards, each with either two or three seats, where both parties have councillors, will be crucial.
He said: “The key story is the five split Labour/Green wards, which returned five Labour and six Green councillors in 2021. If the Greens want momentum for the next General Election, surely they have to be targeting these wards aiming for an 11-0 sweep – they should be aiming to take the lot.
“Given Bristol Central must be the Greens’ number one target for the General Election, the Greens will want to build momentum by focusing their efforts on these wards. This should be the key story of the night – can Labour resist the Green tide?”
Counting for the elections is due to start at 1pm on Friday.