Relegation form so far but here’s proof it can be changed
OMENS LOOK BAD BUT CAN BREWERS GET OUT OF RUT?
ALMOST whichever way you look at it – almost – the omens are not good for a Burton Albion side who are joint bottom of League One 12 games into the season.
In all competitions, the Brewers have gone 13 games without a win, discounting a meaningless penalty shootout success against Fulham Under-21s in the EFL Trophy.
It is relegation form.
There have been no end of mitigating factors, as we keep stating. A new manager, Jake Buxton, starting out at the same time as the Covid-19 pandemic threw football as well as everything else into confusion, a string of pre-season and early-season injuries and some notable illluck in certain games.
Buxton, however, tells his players to leave their excuses at the door when they go on to the pitch and does so himself. He will refer to the problems but he will not let them hide the truth, at least privately.
The harshest truth is that this Burton side, for whatever reason, is not performing to the sum of its parts.
There is experience along with a highly-promising young centre-half on loan in defence – Sam Hughes – a similar mix of experience and youthful legs in midfield and a threat up front.
There is competition for places, too, when everyone is fit.
But this is a team stuck in a rut. The run without a clean sheet now stretches to an alarming 22 games and however determined the defence may be, other teams expect to score against Burton and do. More often than not, they score the first goal and the Brewers are left chasing the game again.
It does not take too much research to show that the bottom two teams at this stage of the season, often also the bottom two at Christmas, usually go on to get relegated.
When clubs pick up and escape, it is usually as the result of a managerial change but, equally, statistics from previous seasons also show that, very often, the change does not reverse a club’s fortunes and can make them notably worse.
Some supporters are calling for an experienced manager, someone who “knows his way around the lower divisions.”
And yet that does not necessarily work either.
Here are a couple of examples, picking up on two of the worst performances I have seen against Burton Albion in the last three seasons.
When the Brewers travelled to play Milton Keynes Dons in October last season – somehow it seems much more than just over a year ago – and won 3-0, the Dons were in utter disarray. They were dreadful. It was a stroll for Burton and there was an air of resignation around the stadium.
The game came in the middle of a 12-game run without a win, 10 of which were defeats. Yet they had an experienced manager, Paul Tisdale, who had been expected to move them on a stage after years of getting Exeter City to punch above their weight.
The Dons turned it round and yet, contrary to popular conceptions, it was a first-time manager promoted from the ranks who did the trick – Russell Martin.
When he brought his rejuvenated team to the Pirelli Stadium in January, they were unrecognisable and the 1-0 defeat they suffered was one of the biggest travesties I have wit
nessed covering the Brewers.
They pulled away from the relegation zone, deservedly so, and look a decent side this season, with former Brewer Scott Fraser starting to make his mark in midfield.
The more startling example of a turnaround though – and one that can give hope to all Burton supporters – is that of AFC Wimbledon in the 2018-19 season.
When the Brewers won 2-0 at Kingsmeadow in February 2019, the more genuine Dons looked as good as relegated.
They had a couple of unlucky moments in the game, the sort of things that do not go your way when you are in trouble, something Burton know all about this season already, but, generally, they were dire.
They were nine points adrift at the bottom of the table at that point and 11 points from safety.
As it turned out, though, that game was the last of a dreadful run which had seen them win three times in 21 games and which had included a streak of eight straight defeats.
Wimbledon did not change their manager. Wally Downs was making the same sort of noises as Jake Buxton at that stage. His team, he said after that game, could not go any lower. The only way was up and the only way to do it was by rolling their sleeves up and working hard.
And that they did. They lost only three more times in the last 15 matches, overcoming a 12-week run fixed to the bottom of the table to beat relegation on goal difference on the last day.
With the exception of occasional weeks in the Championship seasons, when a struggle was expected, the last notable time Burton hit the bottom of a table dates back 15 years.
And if you like omens, there were one or two of them that day.
The Brewers were due to play Altrincham in the Conference on Sunday, October 30, 2005, and, after a difficult start to the season, Saturday’s results slipped them to the bottom of the table.
There were plenty of calls for manager Nigel Clough’s head then, too, but chairman Ben Robinson was, as usual, looking at a bigger picture.
That, too, was a team which promised more than it was delivering, led by Darren Stride and with Keith Gilroy, Jon Shaw, Shaun Harrad and Aaron Webster all prominent.
On the Sunday, Albion scraped a 1-0 home win and climbed four places. Dale Anderson scored the only goal, after 20 minutes, on his 300th appearance for the club.
Chris Hall made the goal but only after he had accidentally handled the ball in the build-up and got away with it.
It was just the sort of lucky break the team needed then and today’s team could do with now.
It was the start of something, too. The Brewers went on to finish ninth, playing Manchester United in the FA Cup along the way, and it proved the springboard to first a play-off campaign and then promotion to the Football League.
This time around, all involved would surely settle for a turnaround which simply involves staying up in extraordinary circumstances.