Population growing, but slowing

The UK’S population is expected to reach 72.0 million by 2041, but the growth rate is slowing down

T HE estimated population of the UK hit 66.8 million in mid-2019, after growing at the slowest rate in 15 years. According to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the number was up from 66.4 million in mid-2018 - an increase of 0.5%, or an additional 361,000 people.

However, that was the slowest increase seen since mid-2004.

Change in population size at a national level has four components: births, deaths, immigration and emigration.

For the majority of the 20th century, natural change due to more births than deaths was the main driver of UK population growth, with net migration a secondary factor.

In the 1990s, however, net migration increased in influence and has been the main source of growth since 1999.

The level of natural increase experienced by the UK in 2019 was the lowest since 2003.

Between mid-2018 and mid-2019 there were 712,680 live births and 604,707 deaths, resulting in an increase of nearly 110,000 people.

It means net migration accounted for more than twice as much of the population growth as natural change that year - around 251,000 people.

Overall migration levels have remained broadly similar since 2016. However, since 2019 there has been a change in migration patterns, which has led to a further increase.

Separate figures on long-term international migration for the year ending March 2020 show that 715,000 people moved to the UK and 403,000 left the country - a net increase of 312,000 people.

Within that, EU net migration has decreased - and has been falling since 2015 - while non-eu net migration has continued to increase, after gradually rising since 2013.

The ONS estimates that the UK population will surpass 69.6 million by mid-2029, and reach 72.0 million by mid-2041 – an increase of 7.8% compared to mid-2019.

As the UK’S population continues to grow, we also have an ageing population as a result of the combination of declining fertility rates and people living longer.

By 2050, the ONS predict that one in four people in the UK will be aged 65 years and over - compared to one in five in 2019.