Still too soon to tell where Brewers can stand
NIGEL Clough is far from the only manager who used to say you could not get an idea of how a season might pan out until 10 games had been played.
It seems a reasonable number of games and it seems a reasonable assertion and yet the events of the last two seasons, not only for Burton Albion, have shown not necessarily that it is flawed, but that it does not always follow.
Notwithstanding the fact this is being written after 11 League games – the euphoria of last week’s win over Portsmouth allowed the 10-mark to slip by, that’s my excuse – I would contend we really do not know yet how the Brewers are shaping up. I’m not at all sure Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink is sure either.
It has already been quite the rollercoaster, with an unfeasibly long lost of injuries, some superb victories and some very disappointing defeats.
Not only because of the injuries, Hasselbaink has yet to arrive at what he might consider to be his best starting 11 and we might not see it until two key long-term injury victims, Sam Hughes and Louis Moult, are back in action, hopefully by the new year.
Pause a minute though and look at where the Brewers – and others – stood after 10 games last season.
It was, of course, a season like no other, as clubs struggled to throw off the financial blows struck by the pandemic.
After 10 games, Burton sat joint bottom with six points but look who was there with them – Oxford United, who had played only eight at that point and went on to reach the play-offs. Albion, Shrewsbury Town and Wigan Athletic occupied the other three relegation places and all survived.
Rochdale and Bristol Rovers, two of those who did eventually go down, were sitting comfortably in mid-table, although the Gas had not yet shot themselves in the foot by appointing Joey Barton.
At the top end of the table, the picture was a little more settled. Four of the top six went on to make the play
offs.
Champions Hull City and automatically-promoted Peterborough United were already in the top four and only Blackpool, who would go up through the play-offs, had yet to get going, being 16th at the time. Ipswich Town were second, their annual implosion still to come.
So what of this year so far? When the League One reporters compiled their predictions, I suggested Bolton Wanderers were likely champions, with new owners’ injection cash, and they certainly look to have an exciting side.
I thought Sunderland were a good bet, on the basis that Lee Johnson would sort them out given a full season and, so far, that looks sound. Asked for a dark horse, I went for Plymouth Argyle, Burton’s opponents on Saturday, because manager Ryan Lowe appears to be good at getting a team together to pull in the right direction.
They have funding but not stupid funding and the likelihood of filling Home Park if things are going well.
So far, that looks a good call, as they sit third and are unbeaten in 10 League games, not having lost in the League since the opening day.
But still I say nothing is looking certain. Sunderland came unstuck 4-0 on Saturday away to Portsmouth, Bolton have looked great in some games but still lost to Cambridge United, as well as Sunderland and Rotherham United.
Saturday’s results were ridiculous. Sunderland’s loss was off the back of a 5-0 win. Ipswich’s defeat to Accrington was off the back of a 6-0 win, Accrington won after being beaten 5-1 the previous week, while the 6-0 victims of Ipswich, Doncaster Rovers, beat MK Dons, who had been flying.
And what, in all this, of the Brewers?
Well, it was accursed luck to lose Moult and Kane Hemmings before the season kicked off, then to lose Jacob Maddox half-an-hour into the season and Deji Oshilaja midway through the second game. Out of the window went Hasselbaink’s initial thoughts about his best side; further out when Michael Mancienne, Tom O’connor and Bryn Morris, all intended for central midfield spots, were also injured.
While, mostly, they are back fit and in contention again, now the two most experienced defenders, John Brayford and Michael Bostwick, have been injured in successive matches.
It already means only three men, goalkeeper Ben Garratt and defend
ers Conor Shaughnessy and Tom Hamer, have played in every game.
The number of injuries caused Hasselbaink to dip deeper into the market in the summer than he might have done and now he has, by his own admission, a larger squad than he intended and therefore around ha l f- a- dozen senior pros not involved on a match-day. Keeping them all interested will be a good trick to pull off.
It should be no surprise, given all of these circumstances, that results have been mixed so far.
The first three matches spoiled us. A hard-working, solid 1-0 win away to Shrewsbury Town followed by thrilling victories over expected favourites Ipswich and Sunderland. The 3-0 away defeat to Cambridge United, with two own goals and a deflection, can be dismissed as a fluke. The Brewers were not on it but it was a 0-0 any other day. Three successive draws followed, uninspiring home ones against Cheltenham Town and Gillingham and one that, most days, they would have lost, the goalless one away to Bolton.
Defeat to an average Crewe Alexandra side was the most concerning, since it has to be filed in the “did not turn up” box and that is so very unlike a Hasselbaink team.
Nor were they great in defeat at home to Lincoln City but it was better and the Imps are emerging as Burton’s next bogie side, now Ipswich have finally been beaten.
The Portsmouth win put smiles back on faces, while the game away to Wimbledon on Saturday was more of a lottery, in foul conditions, than we are tending to acknowledge.
In conclusion, the jury is still out. It would not be a big surprise if the season continued like this, two steps forward, one step back, as Hasselbaink moulds his squad.
Yet they could just get stronger and stronger, as the injury list shortens and a few more key men get settled runs in the side.
Ten games? Ask me again at 20.
We really do not know yet how the Brewers are shaping up. I’m not at all sure Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink is sure either.