Becoming tight ship again is key
IF DERBY County are going to lift themselves from the foot of the table and stage an improbable survival bid – which would become even more unlikely if they are deducted any more points than the 12 already taken from them for going into administration – they simply must hold on to leads.
The Rams have surrendered 14 points from winning positions this season, the highest in the Championship. Couple that with the fact they have only gained a single point when they fall behind and it creates relegation form (even if they had their 12 points added back on they would sit 20th in the table).
Currently nine points adrift of safety, with a further points deduction hanging over them, Wayne Rooney’s side have to arrest the trend quickly or risk their season effectively being over before the Christmas tree is taken down for another year.
The most straightforward answer to lowering those dropped points from winning positions (or collecting more points when trailing in games) is goals. But there are other factors at play.
The sturdy defence with which they opened the season has begun to creak. Derby have conceded two goals in three of their last five games. That such a run has come after a stretch of three straight clean sheets piles on the frustration. Derby had one of the better defences in the Championship until recently.
To add an extra kick to the teeth, in two of those games they led (against Luton Town, which ended 2-2, and against Barnsley, a 2-1 defeat).
Being defensively solid has become Rooney’s calling card since landing the job (first in an interim capacity).
Another worrying trait is how the team concede soft goals, although this is a problem which stretches much further back than the former Manchester United striker’s reign.
One could argue Derby have had a soft underbelly since the days of Frank Lampard in 2018-19, although that team had the firepower to overcome many of their mistakes.
Certainly, under Phillip Cocu, the team conceded some head-scratching soft goals, when they made nine errors leading to goals (third highest that season) and dropped 20 points from winning positions, which ranked them comfortably in the top half of that particular category.
Part of this team’s defensive downfall is also partly their greatest strength: having the courage to play out from the back. It is a method Rooney, largely, insists upon, such is his willingness to bring an attractive style of play to Pride Park. But its pitfalls can be catastrophic.
Derby have conceded two goals this season from their own errors and nine of their mistakes this campaign have led directly to opposition shots on goal, which is the jointhighest in the Championship.
That they have conceded 16 goals from an expected goals against of 11.51 suggests they have been bitten with the element of bad luck but at times the Rams place themselves in hot water.
Rooney has previously said that, as long as the team play the way he wishes, then he is happy to take responsibility for any mistakes. But at some stage something has to give if Derby are to stop dropping points when they are in command of games.
It may spark a return to the horses for courses strategy employed in the second half of last season when the sole focus was keeping Derby in the Championship.
Since then, the ride has hit some significant turbulence on and off the pitch.
Rooney has been steadfast in his belief that Derby will survive again if the points deduction remains at only 12.
He was equally bullish last season when he stated, in no uncertain terms, that the Rams would remain a Championship club. And they did – just.
Over the international break the staff and players must carefully analyse what has gone wrong to see their clean sheets evaporate and the inability to chalk up a win in seven games.
Returning to a tight ship at the back is one way to help ensure that the 14 points dropped from winning positions does not increase significantly any time soon.
And they’ll need that rate to slow if they are to stage a heroic fight to survival – with or without the further points deduction.