Hopeful signs as Omicron cases in SA fall
A noticeable drop in new covid-19 cases in recent days may signal that South Africa’s dramatic omicron-driven surge has passed its peak, medical experts say.
Daily virus case counts are notoriously unreliable, as they can be affected by uneven testing, reporting delays and other fluctuations – but they are offering a hint that omicron infections may recede quickly after a ferocious spike.
South Africa has been at the forefront of the omicron wave, and the world is watching for any signs of how it may play out there, to try to understand what may be in store.
After hitting a high of nearly 27,000 new cases nationwide on thursday, the numbers dropped to about 15,424 on tuesday. in Gauteng province – South Africa’s most populous region, with 16 million people, including the largest city, Johannesburg, and the capital, Pretoria – the decrease started earlier and has continued. Marta nunes, senior researcher at the Vaccines and infectious Diseases Analytics department of the University of Witwatersrand, said: “the drop in new cases nationally combined with the sustained drop in new cases seen here in Gauteng province, which for weeks has been the centre of this wave, indicates that we are past the peak.
“it was a short wave and the good news is that it was not very severe in terms of hospitalisations and deaths.”
Gauteng province saw its numbers rise sharply in mid-november. Scientists carrying out genetic sequencing quickly identified the new, highlymutated omicron variant that was announced to the world on november 25.
the significantly more transmissible omicron quickly achieved dominance in South Africa. An estimated 90 per cent of covid-19 cases in Gauteng province since mid-november have been omicron, according to tests.
but after reaching 16,000 new infections on December 12, Gauteng’s numbers have steadily dropped, to just over 3,300 cases on tuesday.
Dr Fareed Abdullah, who works in the covid-19 ward at Pretoria’s Steve biko Academic Hospital, said of the decrease: “it’s very significant. the rapid rise of new cases has been followed by a rapid fall and it appears we’re seeing the beginning of the decline of this wave.”
South Africa’s positivity rate has remained high at 29pc, up from just 2pc in early november, indicating the virus is still circulating among the population at relatively high levels, she said. it is summertime in South Africa and many gatherings are outdoors, which may make a difference between the omicron-driven wave there and the surges in europe and north America, where people tend to gather indoors at this time of year.