We are heading for a recession

As Boris Johnson looks set to romp to victory as new Tory leader and thereby receive the keys to Number 10 Downing Street, he is about to form the most fragile government seen in Britain for almost 50 years.

What’s more, he’ll do so burdened with one huge problem that not even Mrs May had to face – a recession.

The Bank of England governor Mark Carney recently noted that the UK economy didn’t appear to be growing at all and is heavily reliant on household spending.

The statistics back him up. The most watched surveys of British businesses, released in the past few days, suggest the private sector is already shrinking. In the construction sector, which has just had its worst month since the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, they now talk of ‘quicksand’. Manufacturing has been pole-axed, while out in the much larger service sector things look utterly moribund.

Indeed, the early evidence from some quarters suggests that the UK is already in a recession and that we’re just waiting for more data to prove it.

This is against the background of a ruling party on its last legs in a political system sapped of nearly all legitimacy. A country that has spent most of the decade mired in the weakest recovery for 300 years which is now giving way to recession, while it continues to pledge tax cuts for the richest. And a political class that still kids itself it can get a better Brexit deal out of the rest of the EU, or even that it will survive a crashing-out with only a few scratches.

The bluff and bluster of Mr Johnson will very quickly be found out and his tenure as Prime Minister will coincide with a devastating time for the UK economy. Alex Orr, 2 Marchmont Road, Edinburgh.