Old Ward’s Almanac
Steven Ward goes all Mystic Meg and deals up his predictions for the motoring world in 2018
Do you remember those little A5 books that came out every year and which predicted the future in detail? They were called Old Moore’s Almanac. My granny loved them. (Actually, you can still buy them – next year’s edition is
already on sale – Ed). Well, I predict 2018 will be the year of the used car. PCPS and leasing will start to look less attractive as more are bitten by them.
You don’t need a crystal ball to see this. All you have to do is look on any number of those ‘car supermarket’ websites. You’ll find everything from a petrol Astra to a 7-Series diesel, all under a year old and all effectively half-price.
Why would you take on a new car when you could have a stonkinglygood secondhand one for half-bat? It’s insane! You’ve got a warranty, you’ve got a retailer willing to take your swapper off your hands, and finance is still for pennies. Stick on a crass personalised numberplate and you’re away. You’ve got a new-model car that will remain current for as long as the car loan and, in many cases, the warranty.
If you really insist on having a retail franchise experience, then just take it to a main stealer for its first service. That way you’ll get on their books for the next bucks fizz-and-cheese night they’ll be holding to celebrate a car launch.
My second prediction is that the values of so-called modern classic cars will slide. This will be for several reasons.
First, people will realise how much better modern cars are compared to the worn-out wrecks that are currently trending as something worth persevering with. How much do you use that ‘classic’ relative to how much it costs to maintain? The cost-per-mile of even the most prosaic knacker would astonish many people. As road tax, insurance premiums and labour rates rise, your little luxury will begin to look more like a money pit.
Then, of course, there is the issue of reliability. No matter how good the build quality and design was back in the day, 20+ years of usage takes its toll as you tick all the AA recovery option boxes.
Which brings us to the final nail in the coffin for any modern classic: dealing with garages and bodyshops. Estimates never come in as predicted and the wrong parts are delivered or turn out to be No Longer Available. An NLA part means buying used, and buying used means trawling the internet and scrapyards for dirty, worn parts that are nearly as expensive as when new. Mechanics hate using old parts and there’s nothing worse than a whingey fitter.
So you look at refurbishing parts… Pah! You’ve got to send off the old unit and hope the overhaul is as good as described and that it lasts. Too many times I’ve been let down by these services. And, all the while, your car is taking up space at the garage.
Whatever the outcome, the mechanic will then complain about working on your old car, for you can rest assured that nuts will have seized, previous work will be botched and components will be inaccessible. It’s impossible to drive away happy after being dressed down at length.
Let’s face it, the trade is paid to deal with mechanics out of necessity, otherwise we’d run a mile. Yet you’re doing this for a hobby? I don’t think these romantic old boy race-car relationships will last beyond the next welding of sills for an MOT.
Which brings me to my third prediction: diesel cars will come back into fashion.
Yes, they’re filthy from start to finish – but we always knew that. The national press and politicians have rushed to demonise them, having spent the past decade championing them.
I hereby predict that prices of diesel cars won’t slip any further. At the time of writing, diesel residuals have dropped some 25% compared to 2016 as people take stock of the untold horror. The fact of the matter is that diesels still make sense to the vast majority of people. There is no real alternative for range, economy and, crucially, pulling power. And don’t forget the minuscule road tax.
Diesel cars might never be as popular as they once were, but the landslide in residuals will stop here and now. Like the cost of petrol and diesel fuel, residuals and sales will level out. From here on in, only the people who really need a diesel will buy one and that’s exactly how it should be.
‘Why buy a new car if you can get a good used one for half-bat?’