Quentin Willson
It may be early in the year, but if the opening auctions are anything to go by, Quentin is hopeful that both UK and US markets will remain strong
welcomes a surprisingly strong start to the classic auction year
January, as TS Eliot should have said, is the cruellest month. Old car market watchers wait with fingers crossed for the first auction results of the new year. Uncertainty in January and February influences market sentiment and gloom can roll in like a fog. But the global old car market for 2018 may have reasons to be cheerful judging by recent results from Arizona. With 3176 cars going under the hammer across seven hectic days, sale rates were 84% – up on last year – with the average price running at $92,000. That was also up on 2017.
According to Hagerty, ‘everyman classics’ did well, with $220,000 for a 1960 23-window VW bus a serious record, but sale rates for metal over $250,000 were 70% and there was a softening in the market above $3 million. Although $484,000 for a ’74 246 Dino GTS might suggest that the recent wobble in Sixties’ Ferrari values might be levelling off. Trump’s tax breaks have undoubtedly leveraged the numbers and buyer confidence but Scottsdale’s results are a reassuring mirror image of what we saw last year – well-presented affordable classics with provenance are holding but the big-ticket stuff has weakened. No surprises there and no reason to panic.
Over here, Anglia Car Auctions’ January jamboree suggested that the UK market might stay in line with 2017 too. ACA reckoned it had its biggest crowd ever with no shortage of bidders or enthusiasm. 199 of 225 cars sold – an 88% sale rate – mostly at mid-estimate money and a few almost retail. £18,020 including premium for a 100,000 mile ’88 Merc 300SL is close to dealer money, as is £15,370 for a ’66 Alpine Series V, £14,210 for a ’70 Daimler V8250 and £18,550 for a 1960 Frogeye Sprite. Passion for projects was high with £69,960 bid for a ’71 Aston V8 needing everything, £39,220 for a ’64 Healey 3000 MKIII that hadn’t been on the road since 1972 and £43,460 for a rusty ’68 Jensen FF that will need another £100k to make it shine again. A partly rebuilt 1980 Escort MKI RS2000 went for £16,960 and an Mot-less ’68 Honda S800 convertible made £14,575. These were brave and confident bids.
In fact there was very little that sold for behind-the-market money. I thought the £28,090 for a modern 66-plate Mustang 5.0-litre coupé with 2900 miles wasn’t expensive and a mere £4134 for a ’99 BMW 523i SE auto with one lady owner, just 24,000 miles and full BMW history is a price that we’ll be kicking ourselves about next year. £8480 for a mint LHD ex-japan 1990 Daimler Double-six with only 30,000 miles and total history felt like a snip and a decent three-owner ’68 Bentley T1, originally factory black, for £10,070 wasn’t overpriced either, especially as it was one of only 1712 T1s to come out of Crewe.
Call me foolish for trying to tease out market predictions so early, but if the attendance, interest and selling prices at these first sentiment-setting auctions of 2018 continue, then business could carry on as more-or-less as usual. The only mountains to climb are Brexit, consumer confidence, inflation and a government that appears to be locked in an alarming four-wheel skid with no hands on the steering wheel. Maybe we should keep the champagne on ice for just a little bit longer.