The Covid-19 divide

New confirmed cases are levelling off globally, but in some countries, the virus is spreading rapidly

GLOBALLY, Covid-19 cases may be levelling off, but some countries are only just at the beginning of the virus' spread.

Across the world, there were 612,628 new cases recorded in the week ending May 18, up by 2.5% from the week before.

That's a much slower rate of increase compared to the week ending January 28, when cases increased nearly six times - rising to 14,552 compared to 2,581 the week before.

However, while some countries are now seeing fewer Covid-19 cases than in previous weeks, others are starting to see numbers rise sharply.

Among the countries with at least an average of 100 new cases a day during the last week, Oman saw the sharpest infection trajectory curve.

The number of new cases has nearly tripled in just one week, from 349 new cases in the week ending May 11, to 860 in the week ending Monday 18 - also the highest number since the start of the pandemic.

That means Oman hasn't seen its peak yet.

That's also a much faster rate of increase than the week ending March 31, when cases increased by 16% from 112 to 131 in just one week.

In South Africa, new cases have increased by 70% in just one week from 2,237 to 2016 to 3,232, while in Kuwait they went up by 66%, from 3,705 to 6,162.

That's compared to other countries such as Spain, France, or the UK, where the outbreak started earlier in the year and the peak has passed already, meaning that the infection trajectory is slowing down over the same period.

In the UK, for instance, there were 24,512 new cases in the week ending May 18, down by a quarter from 32,584 in the previous week.

That's compared to the increase recorded in the week ending March 3, when new cases increased from 23 to 237.

The infection trajectory uses the number of new daily cases recorded by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Controlling (ECDPC) in each week since December 31.

If the number of new cases in a given week has increased compared to the previous week, the “trajectory” of the virus goes up, meaning the spreading of Covid-19 in a country is rising.

According to the World Bank, we're now looking at a “containment divide”.

In other words, low- and middleincome countries face a much more difficult situation than their highincome counterparts.

That is because maintaining access to essential goods and services is impossible if these can't be produced in the first place.

Earlier in May, the United Nations (UN) tripled the sum needed to contain a pandemic catastrophe in the world's poorest nations.

The UN asked for a further $4.7bn (£ 3.7bn) on top of $1.6bn (£1.3bn) requested in March to "protect millions of lives and stem the spread of coronavirus in fragile countries".

UN Under-secretary-general for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock said: “The COVID-19 pandemic is hurting us all.

“But the most devastating and destabilizing effects will be felt in the world's poorest countries. In the poorest countries we can already see economies contracting as export earnings, remittances and tourism disappear.

“Unless we take action now, we should be prepared for a significant rise in conflict, hunger and poverty. The spectre of multiple famines looms.

“If we do not support the poorest people – especially women and girls and other vulnerable groups – as they battle the pandemic and impacts of the global recession, we will all be dealing with the spillover effects for many years to come. That would prove even more painful, and much more expensive, for everyone.”