Cov may be ‘vulnerable’ to second wave as covid cases rise

COVENTRY could be vulnerable in the second wave of coronavirus, according to figures.

Data put together by the British Red Cross gives an idea of the different factors that make neighbourhoods more or less vulnerable to a second wave of the virus. The data shows that the North East, North West and West Midlands are likely to suffer the worst consequences from any major resurgence of the virus, while Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland are less vulnerable.

On a more local level, Coventry was ranked as more vulnerable than average in the UK because of overcrowding.

Ranked against the rest of the UK, Coventry was low risk for clinical vulnerability - meaning people in the city are less likely than average to be aged above 70 - and also low risk for economic vulnerability - meaning people are less likely to be claiming disability benefit.

But the city is in the top two per cent of areas in the UK when it came to social vulnerability, meaning that homes are more likely to be overcrowded.

The findings also revealed that there have been 210 excess deaths in Coventry this year, 12 per cent above the five-year average.

It puts Coventry in the top 39 per cent of local authorities in terms of excess deaths.

Research by the New Policy Institute has found that the virus spreads more easily in overcrowded neighbourhoods, even when the higher economic deprivation of these areas is taken into account.

Clinical factors can also shape the relative impact of the virus, with evidence suggesting that respiratory and cardiovascular diseases could increase the risk of dying from Covid-19.

Clinical comorbidities are of particular concern in the South West, where 16% of residents are more than 70 years old - the highest proportion in the country.

Age is a major risk factor for those with coronavirus. In the UK, two in every 1,000 people in their 70s are thought to have died from coronavirus, compared to one in 1,000 of those under 70. For those in their 80s, the figure is seven in 1,000 while for those aged 90 and above it is 18 in 1,000.

The North East has the highest level of vulnerability in the UK, a result of both the high prevalence of clinical risk factors in the region and the area’s precarious economic circumstances.

However, the region also has much lower rates of household over

crowding than average and the cleanest air in the UK, with London coming out worst on both counts.

The capital’s living conditions are by far the most cramped in England and Wales, with an estimated 29% of homes classed as overcrowded - more than double the next highest rate of 12%, in the South East.

The North East’s position as the most vulnerable region in the UK is partly due to the fact that more than one in 25 people in the North East have been diagnosed with coronary heart disease (4%), over twice the rate seen in London (2%). By attacking the lungs, Covid-19 reduces blood oxygenation and raises the heart rate, potentially overwhelming weaker cardiovascular systems.

Weakened blood vessels may also be more likely to get infected, impairing circulation and leading to blood clots, strokes and heart attacks, all of which are common among severe and fatal cases of Covid19.

Diabetes, which can weaken the blood vessels, is known to be a serious risk factor for Covid-19.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has pointed to diabetes as a further potential explanation for the higher rate of Covid-19 deaths among minority ethnic groups.

Type 2 diabetes is up to six times more prevalent among Britons of a south asian background than among white Britons, and up to three times more prevalent among those of a black African background.

Many of the most ethnically diverse local authorities in England and Wales are among those with the highest prevalence of diabetes. Many of these are also among those which have seen the greatest increase in deaths this year, compared to normal.

Of the ten local authorities which have experienced the greatest increase in deaths, seven are among the 10% most diverse in England and Wales.

Similarly, of the ten local authorities with the highest rates of diabetes, six are among the top 10% most diverse in England and Wales.

The findings also revealed that there have been 210 excess deaths in Coventry this year, 12 per cent above the five-year average.