Impact of population drop to be addressed by council
A FALL in the population of the southern part of East Ayrshire led to a cut in funding from the Scottish Government, despite increasing demand for key services.
This unexpected cut left the council facing an additional £2.7m shortfall when it set its budget in February.
East Ayrshire Council is now seeking financial support to address the impact of declining population in some of its most vulnerable communities.
The authority is home to 120,300 people according to the 2022 census.
The north of the authority has seen a boom in the last decade, with the population of the Annick ward expected to increase by 13 per cent by 2028.
In comparison, the population of the three wards in the southern part of the authority are expected to fall by seven per cent.
The three wards in the south of the authority, Cumnock and New Cumnock, Ballochmyle and Doon Valley are looking at an overall population decrease of seven percent.
Ballochmyle, which includes Auchinleck, Mauchline and Muirkirk, is expected to see the biggest drop of around 1,250 people or nine percent of the population.
Cumnock and New Cumnock faces an eight percent drop while Doon Valley’s population is expected to fall by four percent.
These figures become even more concerning when broken down into age groups.
The working age population across the three wards is projected to drop by an average of 16 per cent by 2028.
At the same time, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over is expected to rise by seven percent, with those aged 75 and over set to increase by 22 per cent.
At February’s budget meeting council leader Douglas Reid, inset, had raised his concerns that the overall population masked the differing fortunes of the north and south of East Ayrshire.
He said: “The south of our community, which has seen significant outward migration over the years, has seen a significant reduction in our GAE (Grant Aided Expenditure) while the demand for services in these areas are actually increasing.”
The issue of population decline forms part of a risk management report, to be heard by the council’s Governance and Scrutiny on Thursday, with the population decline viewed as an ‘emerging’ risk.
It states: “Within East Ayrshire, changes in the population shift dramatically depending on location.
“Whilst we can expect to see areas with an increase in their population of 13 percent, our communities with in the most rural areas of the authority are faced with a very different prediction.”
The outlook for the working age population is further hit by the fact that the number of children up to the age of 15 is also expected to drop by 10 per cent.
The report continues: “These are some of the highest decreases present in the authority and are saturated to the one location.”
The decline in the south of East Ayrshire is made all the
more stark by the increases in the north.
The number of children aged 0 to 15, is expected to decrease by 21 per cent.
The number of residents of retirement age is projected to rise by 11 per cent and over 75s increasing by 39 per cent.
“This has, however, resulted in capacity issues at local health, social care and education, as well as pressure on infrastructure like roads, digital, sewerage, and water.”
Like Stewarton, Kilmarnock West is also expected to see a population increase by 2028.
While the estimated increase is eight per cent, it is the only ward that is expected to see an increase in the number of children.
The report adds: “As a council, we should be aware that population decline can have an adverse effect on community confidence and service sustainability, and poses an increase in the vulnerability of communities both now and in the long term.
“It also creates many risk implications in relation to community participation, transportation and connectivity, social isolation, poverty, as well as accessibility issues surrounding jobs, housing, and education.”
With the issue considered an ‘emerging risk’, EAC says that further research on how it can stabilise the population is needed and has applied to the Scottish Government’s ‘Addressing Depopulation Fund’.
“There is a need to promote East Ayrshire to make it a more attract place to live, work and visit. Otherwise, our community will become aged and our towns, more rural and deprived.”