Felix Lowe
Eurosport’s Felix Lowe looks ahead to the potential highlights and lowlights of the 2018 season
Eurosport’s pro cycling blogger makes some bold predictions for the year ahead
As this magazine goes to press, my magic goggles are misting up slightly. Usually they give me a clear view of the upcoming season but no matter how much I fiddle with the controls, aspects of next year’s highlights are still decidely foggy.
Will the 2018 Giro d’italia depart from the city of Jerusalem? My future goggles can just make out a lot of crowds and something fluttering in the air, but is it pink confetti or the remains of a burnt American flag?
Is that Chris Froome I can see through the haze? He’s dressed in pink, but it’s hard to tell whether that’s the maglia rosa or it could be Michelle’s dressing gown he’s wearing while he sits out the Giro after failing to explain how he came to have so much salbutamol in his system at last year’s Vuelta.
Putting my goggles aside for a moment, I can’t help thinking that Froome will most likely be free to race at the Giro, although I suspect the start will be in Italy, not Israel, and Froome may have to forego his reported €2 million fee for the trick of riding a bicycle while juggling a particularly hot political potato. For Froome, the incentive to ride the Giro is now to become the first man since Bernard Hinault to win three Grand Tours in a row. For everyone else, the incentive will be to skip the Giro altogether. Who in their right mind will challenge a strong Froome in Italy when they can take on an exhausted Froome for a bigger prize come July?
Tom Dumoulin would be bonkers to defend his maglia rosa now that he practically has one arm in yellow. Nairo Quintana will remember just how empty he felt last summer after riding the Giro in May, and will rub his hands with glee at the thought of a weakened Froome. The Colombian will just have to watch out for his own new teammate – ex-sky lieutenant Mikel Landa – who is also a potential winner in France. (This Movistar friction should provide the Tour’s biggest subplot: Landa and Quintana have as much chance of gelling as Dave Brailsford’s hair.)
Every all-rounder will feel they have a chance of winning the Tour. Heck, Romain Bardet won’t bother with learning how to time-trial and Fabio Aru may not have to attack when Froome has a flat. It should be the most competitive Tour in years. So, while Richie Porte may feel he’ll never have a better chance to beat his old teammate, the Australian’s chances of a maiden Grand Tour podium will be remoter than Alice Springs.
Spare a thought for Geraint Thomas, for whom the Giro used to represent a rare chance of being top dog rather than dogsbody. His initials may be the only whiff of a GT the Welshman gets all season.
Still, G’s compensation could be a dedicated spring programme instead. Provided he stays on his bike (admittedly not a given) he has the class to win Classics. But in a post-boonen world, Philippe Gilbert and Greg van Avermaet are likely to keep up the Belgian end. Gilbert lacks just Roubaix and Milan-san Remo in his monumental collection, while GVA – for whom the Classics used to be Hell of the Fourth – will look to build on his breakthrough last April.
Where does that leave Peter Sagan? For all his rainbow panache and green jersey stash, the Slovak has only one major Classic. Chuck in Julian Alaphilippe and Michal Kwiatkowski, and there are your five Monument winners for 2018 – although I haven’t the foggiest in which order.
As for those who believe Froome’s GiroTour double attempt is part of a holy trinity that will come into fruition at Innsbruck in September, it’s a cute idea but one unlikely to be realised. Outside of criteriums, when have you ever seen Froome sprint to a oneday win, even on a hilly course?
No, the script for the Worlds surely sees Alejandro Valverde finally stand on the top step of a podium. That or a Sagan quadruple.
As for Froome’s double – well, it has about as much chance of happening as a smooth Brexit or an England World Cup win. Either way, we’ll know by the end of July. Felix Lowe expects 2018 to be a vintage year