Flu cases on rise in Wales, experts say

CASES of flu and other respiratory conditions have increased in Wales over recent weeks, according to experts.

Public Health Wales’ (PHW) influenza and acute respiratory infection surveillance reports that while Covid infections have dropped, confirmed flu cases have risen to indicate the start of “late seasonal activity”.

Rhinovirus, the main culprit behind the common cold, and parainfluenza are currently the most commonly-detected causes of acute respiratory infection (ARI) aside from Covid, with “increasing confirmed cases in recent weeks”, PHW states.

At the Senedd last week, Welsh Conservatives MS and Shadow Health Minister Russell George asked Health Minister Eluned Morgan if she was concerned about a “wave” of these infections over the coming weeks and into the summer months.

“We are watching very carefully the increase in the numbers of people suffering with flu at the moment. We’re probably more worried about it kicking off in the winter,” said Ms Morgan.

“We are continuing with our Help Us to Help You programme to direct people to the right care, at the right place, at the right time and that is already having an impact.”

Despite these concerns, the health minister said these flu cases are at low levels when compared with what we would see pre-Covid during the winter period.

According to latest data from the Office for National Statistics, Wales remains the UK nation with the highest Covid-19 infection rate despite cases falling.

It is estimated that 131,600 people in Wales had the virus in the week ending April 30, equating to 4.33% of the population or around one in 25 people.

In England, around one in 35 (2.91%) had Covid in the week ending April 30, while it was one in 30 in Scotland (3.55%) and one in 40 (2.45%) in Northern Ireland.

Ms Morgan added: “Community transmission of the BA2 Omicron wave of Covid-19 continues at a very high level across Wales.

“The health and social care system is still struggling with the demands of Covid-19.

“We must maintain our efforts to reduce transmission within hospital settings.

The Welsh Government has taken the decision to retain the compulsory use of masks in health and care settings for a further three weeks.

“I understand how challenging the past two years have been, in particular for those working in health and social care.

“There’s been much hard work and sacrifice and I applaud their ongoing efforts as we continue to take steps to keep safe the most vulnerable and the staff working in these high-risk settings,” the Health Minister added.

The World Health Organisation epidemiological summary, dated April 27, reports that the number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths globally has continued to decline since the end of March.

However, a nine-week high in the positivity rates of Covid-19 tests in South Africa and the increasing incidence of virus fragments in waste water indicate that there may be a fifth wave beginning in the country.

This appears driven by two new Omicron sub-variants, BA4 and BA5, which are outcompeting BA2.

Experts in the Welsh Government’s technical advisory cell claim understanding the relative growth rates and clinical significance of BA4 and BA5 will “require more time”.

They said only a “small number” of cases of these variants have been detected in the UK to date.