Heady 78pt news 706
WHEN England walk out tomorrow in front of a 90,000 sell- out at the MCG to start their World Cup campaign against co- hosts Australia, few will fancy their chances of returning for the fi nal at the same ground 43 days later.
Bookmakers and ICC rankings agree Eoin Morgan will lead the fi fth- best side in the tournament, so the quarter- fi nals should be the limit of their involvement.
And yet ambition should always outstrip reason for a sporting team, and there are reasons to believe England can go deeper in this tournament than at any stage since they came agonisingly close to winning it against Pakistan on the same strip of grass in 1992.
Since then, England have underperformed at World Cups, failing to make a semi- fi nal in fi ve subsequent attempts, including at home in 1999. But conditions in Australia and New Zealand give them their best chance of righting that.
The Aussies, followed by South Africa, are favourites for a tournament that stretches lazily over the group stages and more urgently from the fi rst quarter- fi nal on March 18 to the fi nal on March 29.
On the face of it, both have everything needed for a successful World Cup: powerful batting with its roots spread evenly between Twenty20 innovation and Test orthodoxy, and varied bowling attacks that can strike with the new ball.
But World Cup history is littered with upsets and England have the raw components to compete over the next six weeks. If they can build a head of steam prior to the knockout stages, they need only to win twice to reach the fi nal.
To do that, they need the fl edgling opening partnership of Moeen Ali and Ian Bell to click, James Taylor and Joe Root to anchor the middle, and new skipper Eoin Morgan and Jos Buttler to provide the fi reworks.
They also need Stuart Broad and James Anderson to take wickets up front when the ball is hard, and Steve Finn and Chris Woakes to put the clamps on the middle overs.
The format of this World Cup leaves a lot to be desired. The ICC have alighted on the formula for a perfect event – but use it for the Champions Trophy, in which meaningful cricket hits you day after day over three and a half weeks.
Here, the tortuous group process is designed to help the eight major teams make it through to the knockout rounds, with three victories against the minnows enough to secure safe passage.
World Cups past have seen giant- killing acts, such as when Ireland chased down England’s 327 in Bangalore four years ago, or beat Pakistan in 2007. There have been shocks from Zimbabwe, Kenya and Bangladesh down the years as well. But while Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Ireland will all believe they can land punches on the chins of heavyweights , the big boys should get through.
West Indies – who have controversially left out two of their best players in Kieron Pollard and Dwayne Bravo and are stripped of their best bowler in Sunil Narine, who is remodelling his action – look the most vulnerable.
India, who have been on tour since they began the Test series against Australia at the start of December, also look out of sorts, although the onset of a meaningful tournament may bring an improvement.
While Pakistan have been walloped home and away by Australia and the Kiwis, they are not so much cornered tigers as caged. New Zealand fancy their chances in their own conditions and will play all their games at home bar the final, should they make it. How they cope with the expectation will be fascinating .
And South Africa are strong throughout, with the best batsman in the world in AB de Villiers, the class of Hashim Amla and a bowling attack any captain would love in Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel, Vernon Philander and Imran Tahir. But can they handle the pressure of the knockouts?
There is a feeling that Australia have the perfect motivation in commemorating their former colleague Phillip Hughes, who died last year after being struck on the head by a bouncer at the SCG.
They have an enviable side, with David Warner, Aaron Finch, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell the Mitchells, Starc and Johnson, and skipper Michael Clarke, when he returns from injury.
But could England, who have found improvement and most importantly a settled line- up since taking the courageous if belated decision to jettison Alastair Cook, click under captain Morgan?
Tomorrow will go a long way to answering that question.