Patrick o’Flynn
that our economy would be a bigger component of the overall EU economy and higher EU subscriptions would be calculated on the basis of this. We would, in effect, be fined for our relative economic success.
Horseman number three is that a large new wave of migration from eurozone nations into Britain would surely follow – drawn to the one major EU economy with a good record of creating jobs. This would be on top of the higher EU migration already expected to be attracted in by the national living wage.
And horseman number four is that a downturn in the fortunes of eurozone economies would have a knock-on impact on ours via a depression in demand for our exports.
The 12 per cent of the UK economy taken up with exporting into the EU would face a sharp contraction.
If the crisis in the eurozone is severe it is possible to envisage something of the order of one per cent of UK economic activity being knocked out. Now, it is true that even if we have left the EU by the time of the next euro crisis, it will still have a negative impact upon us.
It is certainly not good for us that our European cousins have got themselves into such an economic pickle and we should pray that the inevitable day of reckoning is long delayed.
Yet something else is also true: if we have either left the EU or are at least on a pathway to leaving then the damage done can be substantially reduced.
Take horseman number one. If we are out of the EU then we cannot be made to take part in any bailout. If we are on the way out then our case to stay out of a bailout will be strengthened – the British people will have spoken against being caught up in the negative consequences of EU integration.
At worst, our bill would be limited to a couple of years before we had left altogether. Similarly with horseman number two, our extra membership contributions would only hit us for a couple of years before the day came to say adios amigos, au revoir mes amis and auf Wiedersehen pet.
In the case of horseman number three, we would be on the way to regaining the right to set our own immigration policy. It would be far easier to enact legislation to control migration without fearing aggravation from the European Court of Justice. We could ensure that the wheels of justice ground slowly enough for the ECJ to be irrelevant.
WITH horseman number four while there is little we could do to stem economic contraction in the eurozone, there is a lot we could do to exploit growing markets outside the EU and reach our own bilateral free trade deals.
The euro is a ticking financial bomb. Many eurozone economies cannot cope with being in the same monetary system as Germany with its superior productivity based on scale, infrastructure, good industrial relations, superb technical education and work ethic.
So at some point the euro will go pop. When it does we will be vastly better off if we have voted to leave the EU.
The four financial horsemen are drawing closer. Unless we Vote Leave on June 23, we might as well leave our doors unlocked and invite them to do their worst.
‘What will a new euro crisis do to us?’