Migration to fall 150,000 after Brexit

ANNUAL net migration from EU countries could fall by as much as 150,000 as a result of Brexit, according to a study.

Net migration – the number of people coming to live in the UK each year minus the number leaving – is set to drop 91,000 by 2020, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimated.

But the figure could fall by as much as 150,000 if Britain makes a “hard” exit from the EU.

The body claimed the fall would cut GDP per person by up to 1.2 per cent by 2020 and up to 5.4 per cent by 2030 compared with what it would have been if Britain stayed in the EU.

It predicted lower migration would boost pay for Britons in low-income jobs such as construction and retail by 0.5 to 0.8 per cent by 2030.

The independent research institute described its report as a “useful guide” but admitted its predictions were “highly uncertain”.

Boost

Alp Mehmet, vice chairman of Migration Watch UK, said: “I welcome NIESR’s acceptance of what many have been saying, that reducing migration could help boost wages at the lower end of earnings.

“What seems to be lacking is any evidence that the large numbers of migrants arriving in the UK over the past decade for low-paid work have led to any increase in UK productivity.

“For this reason I do not see how restrictions on such migration in the future would have the adverse impact suggested.”

A Downing Street spokesman admitted there were “question marks around the findings”, adding: “It’s not incompatible to control immigration while also improving public finances.”

Earlier, Leave Means Leave co-chairman John Longworth was pressed by MPs to agree that UK firms need foreign low-skilled workers because Britain had relatively low unemployment.

Mr Longworth told the Commons Brexit select committee that Britain had “shameful” unemployment rates among under-25s, asking: “Why are we recruiting people from Continental Europe to do this work?”

Britain needed some foreign labour but research showed high immigration made people already here worse off, he added.

Six hundred “child” asylum seekers tested in Denmark turned out to be adults when the Danish Immigration Service used medical tests to determine the age of 800 migrants who claimed to be under 18.

The government said the results were proof that measures to expose cheats were working.