Figures that show why we don’t need any more migrants
BUSINESSES will not face sudden labour shortages if immigration is cut drastically after Britain leaves the EU, a report said last night.
Analysis of official statistics reveals that the UK has enough “settled” workers from Eastern Europe to fill low-skilled jobs. Further mass migration from the EU is not needed, the report adds.
Britain’s expected labour force requirements were published by the population think-thank Migration Watch UK.
The researchers based their conclusions on a study of the Labour Force Survey, a regular update on employment in the UK and published by the Office for National Statistics.
The Migration Watch UK report said: “The data on long-term migrants suggests that migrants from the EU tend to settle down and stay in the UK, including some of those who originally arrive only intending to stay for a short time.”
Migrants from outside the EU were more likely to come to the UK to work for a short period before returning to their home countries, it added. The report said the pool of Eastern European workers in the UK “has been a largely settled population at least since the end of the recession”.
It added: “This suggests that there is no need for a continued flow to maintain the existing stock of Eastern European workers.”
The stock of migrants from 10 Eastern European countries – the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria – appeared to be increasing rather than decreasing, according to the report.
It said: “On the assumption that EU citizens who are here before the UK leaves the EU will have their rights preserved, this analysis suggests that there will not be a need for any significant continuing inflow to sustain the existing Eastern European workforce.”
Migration Watch UK has called for restrictions on lower-skilled migration, saying curbs could reduce net migration from the EU by about 100,000 a year. International net migration from Europe and the rest of the world has been running at near-record levels of about 300,000, well above the Government’s target of less than 100,000.
Alp Mehmet, vice chairman of Migration Watch UK, said: “Employers will not face a cliff edge over their workers from the EU.
“In the past 10 years very many migrants from Eastern Europe in low-skilled work seem to have stayed so there is no sign that continued large inflows are needed to maintain the present number available for work. Cutting out this aspect of migration in future should reduce net migration by about 100,000 a year.”
Analysts have predicted that sectors such as construction, hospitality, social care and fruit picking are likely to be the main targets of any post-Brexit policies to reduce migration from the EU for work purposes.
The Government is expected to seek to introduce controls on free movement rules following the Brexit vote but ministers have remained tight-lipped about the future system. Last month, Home Secretary Amber Rudd hinted that the regime could include measures to reduce the number of migrants who arrive from the EU looking for work.
Figures show that an estimated 82,000 EU immigrants came to the UK to seek employment in the year to June.
The Government’s Brexit White Paper says the new system will be designed to help fill skills shortages while any approach could be “phased in” to give businesses and individuals time to plan for changes.