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Jubilant May gets Brexit election boost
JUBILANT Theresa May yesterday hailed an “astounding” victory for the Conservatives in the Copeland by-election.
The historic win in a seat held by Labour since the 1930s was seen as a vindication of the Prime Minister’s clear strategy on Brexit.
New Tory MP Trudy Harrison became the first candidate for a governing party to beat the main Opposition in a by-election since 1982, a year when Labour split and the country was embroiled in the Falklands War.
But after a dismal night for Labour, Jeremy Corbyn refused to step down as leader even though his MPs reported that voters in Copeland named him as the reason they were abandoning the party.
Standing alongside the triumphant Tory candidate in the Cumbrian constituency, Mrs May said the result showed they were a Government for “every part of the country”.
She told cheering party activists: “This is an astounding victory for the Conservative Party but also for the people of Copeland.
Threats
“Labour have held this seat since the 1930s. A party in government hasn’t won a by-election in a seat held by the Opposition for 35 years.
“What we have seen from this victory is that this truly is a Government that is working for everyone and for every part of the country.”
Later, addressing the Conservative Councillors Association, she said: “The result is a devastating blow for Labour and proof that they are out of touch with the concerns of ordinary working people.”
She urged them to continue the fight into the local government elections in May, warning that Mr Corbyn’s hard-Left brand of socialism was taking over local councils.
She said: “Labour’s councillors now dance to the tune of the militant unions and Momentum’s hard-Left activists, facing threats of candidate deselection if they don’t.”
The by-election result came after months of Labour confusion over Brexit and an attempt by the party to derail the Government’s Bill to allow Mrs May to trigger the Article 50 leaving process.
Labour has been left deeply divided over the outcome of the referendum and managed to select anti-Brexit candidates for both Copeland and Stoke. Mrs May’s clear leadership on Brexit has seen the Tories open up an 18 point lead over Labour in the polls.
Mr Corbyn and his far-Left allies tried to deflect blame for the defeat, trying to suggest it was a result of a plot by moderate MPs, the work of former spin doctor Lord Mandelson or a constituency reliant on the nuclear industry reacting to Mr Corbyn’s opposition to nuclear power.
Mr Corbyn said: “I was elected to lead this party. I am proud to lead this party. We will continue our campaigning work on the NHS, on social care, on housing.”
Shadow chancellor John McDonnell said the result was “not unexpected”, claiming there had been “unique” factors in Copeland. And Cat Smith, another close ally of Mr Corbyn, caused astonishment when she claimed that “to be 15-18 points behind in the polls is an incredible achievement”.
Labour MP John Woodcock, whose constituency borders Copeland, said the party was heading for disaster.
ICAN usually listen to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme dispassionately but yesterday six words uttered by shadow chancellor John McDonnell had me snorting with derision: “When Jeremy Corbyn becomes prime minister…” I know that in politics it is necessary to put on a show of fake confidence but there is a point where it tips into foolishness.
Is there really anyone who thinks that a party, which has just lost in a by-election a seat it held for more than 80 years, has the faintest hope of winning the next election – at least with its current leader?
With the Stoke and Copeland results, putting money on a Tory victory at the next election looks less like a bet than an investment. Yesterday William Hill was offering 1/5 on the Conservatives to have the largest number of seats. You can think of that as a pretty certain 20 per cent return on your money over three years, with only a small chance of losing your capital. Plenty of shares offer a less attractive prospect.
For Labour to try to put a positive spin on its retention of Stoke-on-Trent Central – Thursday’s other by-election – is pathetic. The Labour share of the vote there fell from 39.3 per cent to 37 per cent. Ukip failed to capitalise on Labour’s weakness but still saw its share rise from 22.7 per cent to 24.7 per cent, with the Tories seeing a similar percentage increase. So much for the Labour candidate’s fatuous thanks to the people of Stoke for “rejecting” the politics of Ukip.
WE have now had three by-elections since the Conservatives’ shock defeat in Richmond Park last December. The story they tell is quite clear. The idea that there is a huge population of disaffected Conservative voters out to punish the party for Brexit or for “austerity” is bunk. Theresa May and her policies remain hugely popular.
So long as that remains the case there will be little room for Ukip to make progress but even if Mrs May’s extended honeymoon period fizzles out it is hard to see Corbyn’s Labour benefiting. The public has seen quite enough of him to decide that he is no prime minister in waiting. If his leadership abilities seem scant he will remain forever dogged by his sympathies to those linked with terrorism – describing Hamas as his “friends”.
His views on defence are way off to the Left of the British people. As for his economic policy, only a lack of detail has saved him from being savaged. But if he does find himself leading a general election campaign there is little doubt as to how the electorate will react to the prospect of higher taxes and yet more borrowing.
There is a growing chance that he will spare himself the embarrassment of a general election defeat and resign – or retire, as he will more likely put it – before 2020. How many more of his erstwhile political friends will have to desert him before the attractions of his allotment outweigh his hopeless dream of power?
Growing mutterings about a Corbyn retirement make it all the more attractive for Conservative strategists to contemplate an early general election before he wanders off into the sunset. A few weeks ago I said I was pencilling in May 4 for a poll and I haven’t changed my mind. On the contrary I am increasingly tempted to ink it in. Why struggle on with a majority of 12 when you have an open goal to increase that substantially? Any government that found itself in the position Mrs May’s does would be minded to call an early election but when you have months of potentially knife-edge votes on Brexit terms ahead it is daft not to seize the opportunity.
True, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act – a stitch-up between Cameron and Clegg to help ensure the survival of the coalition – is a complication, technically requiring a two- thirds majority of MPs to agree to an early election. But why not abolish it, which would require only a simple majority? No one can argue it is some great constitutional lynchpin.
BRITISH politics has changed so much since 2015 that the people deserve another say in whom they want as their Parliamentary representatives. Two years ago the issue in party manifestos was whether to have a referendum at all. Now we have had that referendum we should have another chance to elect a government, this time based on its plans for Brexit.
It would be the perfect way of silencing those who demand a second referendum. Any party which wants another referendum, or which wants to lay aside the result of the one we have already had, would have the opportunity to put that in its manifesto.
We would soon find out how many regretful Leave voters there really are. Not many, I suspect, especially now that Cameron and Osborne’s grim warnings on the economy have been exposed as the propaganda they were.
I don’t think Theresa May has it in her to be one of those great prime ministers who reset political debate on their own terms in the way that Mrs Thatcher did. But I do think she will be able to retire in around a decade’s time as a very good PM who managed to bring a kind of unity to the country in very trying circumstances.
But her reputation and legacy will be all the stronger if she does the brave thing now and seeks her own mandate rather than relying on what remains of David Cameron’s.
As I say, I have pencilled in an election for May 4. Jeremy Corbyn should schedule the artichoke-planting on his allotment for May 5.
‘Public have seen he is no PM in waiting’