US has to consider how China will act
TO MY recall the world has only seriously contemplated an exchange of nuclear weapons twice since the end of the Second World War. Once was in the autumn of 1962 when Nikita Khrushchev insisted on introducing aggressive rockets into Cuba, pointing at the US 90 miles away. President JFK Kennedy’s response was that if he persisted, the US Navy would intercept equipment-carrying Soviet freighters on the high seas.
The second was in early 1982 when Soviet leader Yuri Andropov became convinced that Nato manoeuvres were the real thing and considered a pre-emptive first strike. They weren’t but it was doubtful if Andropov, sick unto death, was wholly sane. But there was a difference between then and now.
Neither general secretary ruled alone. They ruled with the Politburo. These were elderly men with the caution of age. They did not want to die. They did not have the suicide lust of Islamic State. They were our bitter enemies but they veered towards staying alive. At issue was Mutually Assured Destruction – the famous MAD which was not mad at all. The situation today is quite different.
North Korea is ruled under the iron grip of one very young man, quite possibly not sane, with whom it seems absolutely no one in Pyongyang is prepared to dispute. There is no Hot Line with which to talk to him. The savage executions of his once-nearest intimates indicate his character and that does not inspire optimism.
On the other hand, his entire nuclear arsenal cannot even touch America, not even the island of Guam at the moment. So mutually assured destruction is out of the question. He really is a military midget. So what is the problem?
IT IS that ever since the Pakistani scientist A Q Khan sold North Korea the nuclear technology, Pyongyang has raced down the nuclear path with deceptive speed, along with her ultra-long-range rockets. Put the two together and she must soon have Guam and then Hawaii within range, not to mention America’s ally Japan. Obviously China as well, but China is her guardian and protector and though Beijing may be horrified by the slug-like Kim Jong-un, so far it does not seem willing to stop the missile and atom-bomb programme in its tracks. It is imposing economic sanctions but Kim does not care how many Koreans starve and die.
One last point. There are about 12 major research laboratories, manufacturing hubs and launch facilities in North Korea. Without using an ounce of fissionable material, the USAF could reduce them all to rubble in a single night. One suspects they would be happy to do that. The real problem, therefore, is not the might of North Korea but the reaction of China.