Warning on death toll as ‘real possibility’ of North Korea war grows
A WAR with North Korea is “a real possibility” because “time is not on diplomacy’s side,” a leading military think tank is warning.
The conflict could begin with a US-led air and cyber attack on the rogue nation, a Royal United Services Institute report said.
Pyongyang would then retaliate with an assault on South Korea using nuclear, chemical or conventional weapons.
Even without nuclear weapons, any conflict could cause “hundreds of thousands of casualties”, as many as the wars in Iraq and Vietnam, the report predicted.
Defence and security expert Professor Malcolm Chalmers warns in his report, released today: “Some of Trump’s key advisers may believe that it is now or never for the US to take military action.”
He calls on the UK government to continue to work to intensify international sanctions on North Korea and to support efforts to find a diplomatic solution.
North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un claims to have intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads which are capable of hitting mainland US.
Prof Chalmers said: “War is now a real possibility. With North Korea making rapid progress in its missile and nuclear programmes, time is not on diplomacy’s side.”
“The US is prepared to maintain the option of preventive strikes against North Korean nuclear facilities despite the knowledge that these could result in a new Korean war, perhaps comparable in loss of life with the conflicts in Iraq or even Vietnam.”
Prof Chalmers said war start “in a variety of ways”.
“North Korea could strike first if it believed that the US were moving towards a surprise attack,” could he said. “Or a US attack might be triggered by North Korean test missiles hitting the ocean near [the US pacific island territory of] Guam or California.”
Even without nuclear weapons, casualties would probably reach the hundreds of thousands and the war would also have “farreaching consequences” for the global economy. He said a preventive strike without South Korea’s agreement would send a signal Washington was willing to “sacrifice Seoul to protect New York”.
However, military analyst Major Charles Heyman played down the risk of war.
He said: “There’s a lot of posturing going on but it does look like the protagonists are stepping back from the brink.”