Theresa May has weathered the storms of 2017
IN THE immediate aftermath of the general election in June Theresa May’s premiership appeared to be doomed. She had presided over a dismal campaign in which her party had lost 33 seats to Labour and the Liberal Democrats, in defiance of all expectations of a Conservative landslide. She was personally bruised and politically isolated. Jeremy Corbyn, gloating over the Government’s turmoil, predicted that he would be in Downing Street by Christmas.
But the Labour leader could not have been more wrong. The Prime Minister now looks more secure than at any time since June.
The prospect of a leadership challenge has faded, replaced by a new sense of purpose in her administration. Bolstered by this month’s Brexit deal and the continuing evidence of a strong economy, May has emerged as the great survivor of 2017. There is now even talk of her remaining in office until 2021, something that would have seemed unthinkable only a few months ago. As one Cabinet minister puts it: “I’m confident that she will go on long beyond what people expect.”
It is a sign of her resurgent authority that the resignation of Damian Green last week as First Secretary of State, effectively her deputy, had so little impact.
This episode could have plunged the Government into a major crisis, especially because Green has been one of her closest allies, their friendship stretching back to their days at Oxford. When Sir Geoffrey Howe resigned as deputy prime minister in November 1990 he sounded the death knell of Margaret Thatcher’s long reign as prime minister.
GREEN’S departure was potentially all the more serious because it came soon after two other Cabinet resignations, one by defence secretary Michael Fallon over accusations of sexual misconduct, the other by international aid secretary Priti Patel over unauthorised meetings with the Israeli government.
There was every chance that this personal turbulence could have inflicted terminal damage on May just as John Major was broken in the mid-1990s by the relentless controversy over sleaze. But nothing like this has happened. The Prime Minister has come through unscathed.
This is partly because the Green scandal was no reflection on her. She was absolutely straight throughout, setting up an inquiry into allegations he had accessed porn on his office computer and had harassed a female journalist.
When it became clear that Green, in breach of the ministerial code, had twice lied in public about his behaviour, May had no alternative but to ask for his resignation despite their friendship. It was a squalid episode in which police officers made the porn allegations public. But his sealed his fate.
There was another reason that his exit failed to provoke a storm. Diffident, awkward, and uncharismatic, Green was a political mediocrity barely known to the general public. He was also a dripping wet and an arch-Remainer at a time when the Government is pressing ahead with Brexit. Few members of the Cabinet were more dispensable, particularly because he did not hold one of the great offices of state.
If anything May has seen her reputation for integrity enhanced by the Green saga. She is like a battleship that has dishonesty sustained regular bombardment but keeps on sailing at the head of the fleet.
Last week at the final session of Prime Minister’s Questions of 2017 she was on supremely combative form against Corbyn demolishing him on the subject of the NHS, which is meant to be the Government’s weak point. At one stage Tory MPs were cheering “more, more”, a chorus that was never heard in the wake of the general election disaster.
Soon after this appearance in the chamber she gave one of her classic stonewalling performances to the Parliamentary Liaison Committee, provoking a mixture of admiration and frustration from MPs at the dead bat she played to most of their questions.
THE growing confidence has been fuelled in part by the success of the first phase of her Brexit negotiations as she reached an agreement with the EU that many critics thought was beyond her grasp. “I proved the doubters wrong,” she said with justifiable satisfaction.
She has been further boosted by the success of the economy in contradiction of all the hysterical Brexit gloom. Manufacturing output is at its highest level since the mid-1980s, unemployment at its lowest since the 1970s.
The lack of realistic alternatives also helps May. She is now widely seen as the only figure who can unite the Tory Party and prevent a descent into civil war. Paradoxically the outcome of the general election may have turned out to be a blessing in disguise, in that the loss of the majority has enforced a spirit of unity among the Tories for fear of letting in Corbyn.
Furthermore the removal of her two aggressive aides Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, as the price of the election setback, has had the effect of reducing friction at the heart of Government.
When her prospects were at their darkest it looked like May would have the shortest term as Prime Minister since Alec Douglas-Home, who served just 362 days in 1963-64. But she rose to the top through her resilience and sense of duty. As she looks forward to 2018 May continues to display those qualities in abundance.
‘The only figure who can unite the Tories’