Primed to shine or burn out?
EU referendum. Whereas the Prime Minister escaped having to face a final two-candidate run-off as the last Tory leadership race ended early, no simple coronation is guaranteed next time. Mrs May’s successor is likely to be chosen by the party’s overwhelmingly Eurosceptic grassroots membership. The odds must be on a Brexit true believer – who backed leaving the EU in the run-up to the historic vote – emerging triumphant.
Given that playing field, Johnson probably has one Boris more shot left at the top job. The Foreign Secretary is understood to be frustrated at the lack of optimism about Brexit from the Government at present and is likely to want to seize the chance should Mrs May be forced out by unforeseen events in the run-up to the March 2019 exit. His chances will diminish as long as the Prime Minister stays put in Number 10.
Rising stars with impeccable Vote Leave credentials will be the ones to watch long term. New Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey and Housing Minister Dominic Raab are talked about as potential challengers and there are plenty of other names being discussed.
For all the disquiet about her reshuffle the factors that have kept Mrs May in her job – the need to deliver Brexit and the fear of another general election – have not changed. Despite the Tory leadership chatter, the real contest does not look like happening any time soon. There is plenty of time for a few more John Moore types to burn brightly and then fade away.