Putin’s full of bluff but Russia is weak
RESEARCH into my new novel reveals that the globe-wide expulsions of Russian spies after the Skripal affair has damaged Moscow’s espionage network far more seriously than we at first thought. Our counter-spooks chose well when they advised the Prime Minister whom to chuck out. Entire networks have been crippled and will not be easily or quickly reestablished. And this has not been just in the UK. We also advised foreign governments pretty shrewdly as well.
With our usual self-deprecation we tend to prevent the British people knowing just how good our own services really are and how they are respected by our friends and allies. Behind the scenes, so I am told, secret services right across Europe would be devastated if EU negotiator Barnier fails to realise in his arrogance that any diminution of our contribution to the EU-wide intelligence capacity would be regarded as an unmitigated disaster. We have a huge asset there. Let’s hope our negotiators use it.
Vladimir Putin postures and threatens but the real state of his armed forces is a fraction of what he claims. Much is run down, out of date, obsolescent. That is why his modernisation programme is so frantic. But it is costing him a staggering amount of money. This is coming from his oil and gas revenues. If Western Europe could fulfil its oil/gas needs from another source his arms expenditure would sunder.
That is why the silly snowflakes preventing us from even sinking test bores to see if we could follow the USA in making ourselves selfsufficient, even able to replace his Gazprom in fuelling Europe, are doing us no favours at all. As North Sea oil runs out we have to keep the lights burning and the houses warm from another source. Wind farms provide a fraction of what we need. Wood pellets from America are filthier than now-discredited coal. It could be the answer is beneath our feet.
As for Putin, his aggressive chauvinism is immensely popular with the Russian masses. But people are fickle. If their gas/oil prosperity falters they could change.
It is the Russian economic frailty and the West’s strength in that arena that gives us the real edge.