Embattled PM lives to fight on
CANNON to the right of her, cannon to the left. Theresa May now faces incoming ordinance from both flanks as the Tory warfare over Brexit turns white hot. Last month the Prime Minister survived a barrage from pro-Brussels Tories. Next week the honourable company of Brexiteers will be lighting the fuses.
A revolt by up to 80 Eurosceptic Tory MPs looms in the Commons on Monday over yet another package of crucial Brexit legislation. Jacob Rees-Mogg and his crack anti-Brussels troops in the European Research Group threaten to be far more intractable opponents than the shambolic Remainer platoon led by former attorney general Dominic Grieve. They will also be fired up by the incendiary blast on the Prime Minister’s Brexit plans launched by US President Donald Trump.
“We have been betrayed and we have had enough,” one European Research Group member told me. “The Prime Minister has attempted to manipulate us into swallowing a non-Brexit. We cannot allow her to get away with it.”
Mrs May marked the second anniversary of her appointment as Prime Minister yesterday trying to cope with the political devastation wrought by the US President’s individualistic approach to diplomacy. As she enters her third year in Downing Street the Brexit debate has seen her parliamentary party disintegrate into two warring factions plus a despairing middle ground that wishes the whole row would just go away.
AWAY from Westminster the mood in the Tory grassroots is reported to be even more mutinous. Photographs of cut-up Conservative Party membership cards have appeared on social media sites in a backlash against Mrs May’s proposals for a Brexit deal with Brussels. Local Conservative Associations that welcomed an influx of former Ukip members in the early days of Mrs May’s premiership face an exodus of the disillusioned.
When sacking George Osborne in the first days of her premiership, Mrs May advised the outgoing chancellor to “get to know her party better”. The Prime Minister might expect a less than friendly reception from many Tory activists today.
Yet the rumours of a Tory leadership challenge against the Prime Minister are premature. Friends of Boris Johnson insist the former foreign secretary, who followed fellow Eurosceptic David Davis in quitting the Government this week, is not on manoeuvres to try to replace Mrs May. “There is no team Boris,” one of his friends told me.
Another senior member of the European Research Group said: “We hate the Brexit plan and our aim has to be to stop it. But our response needs to be thought through and not about causing chaos.”
Mrs May’s allies are hopeful the conflict in the party will fizzle away once Parliament’s long summer break begins in just over a week. While MPs can still plot by mobile phone and tablet computer from their holiday sunbeds, a few weeks away from the bars and restaurants of Westminster may cool their tempers. Loyal ministers claim this week’s frontbench desertions have already improved the mood within the Government. “We are in a better place,” one ministerial source said. “The resignations have cleared the air around the Cabinet table. The team is much more united.”
Brexiteer MPs concede that Monday’s planned rebellion over four amendments to the Government’s Taxation (Cross-Border Trade) Bill will be a show of strength rather than a mortal threat to the Prime Minister. At worst she could be embarrassed by having to rely on opposition votes to pass the legislation intact.
Monday’s Commons clashes are likely to be mere early skirmishes ahead of the true Brexit war in the autumn when the Prime Minister hopes to have the draft of a Brussels deal to try to sell to MPs.
The Prime Minister has proved to be resilient while being harried by attacks on both flanks over recent months. Her allies will be hoping she makes the most of her summer break to refresh herself for the momentous battle ahead. And, like one of Napoleon’s generals, she badly needs a little luck.