CHEQUERS WILL DICTATE WHO LEADS THE CONSERVATIVES

THE WESTMINSTER guessing game to try to name the next Tory leader has been thrown up into the air by Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

Before this week, the speculation among Tory MPs had focused on which contender might be able to unite the Leave and Remain party factions after the scheduled departure from the EU next March.

More moderate Brexiteers have suggested a figure such as Home Secretary Sajid Javid or Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who both voted Remain in the 2016 referendum but have since been pushing for a clearer break with Brussels, could be the candidate to heal the divisions and lead the party into the next general election.

Yet the details of the deal that emerged this week have poisoned the atmosphere within the Tory parliamentary party. Brexiteers have lost faith with any ministers who chose to stay around the Cabinet table after the fateful meeting at the Prime Minister’s Chequers country retreat in July that rubber stamped Mrs May’s offer to the EU.

“This disastrous deal is the direct result of Chequers,” one senior Brexiteer told me. “It is no good ministers bleating now about the details when they gave Chequers the go-ahead.”

The key dividing line likely to determine the outcome of the next Tory leadership election is no longer simply Leave or Remain but rather who was for or against the Chequers proposals.

Boris Johnson and David Davis remain in the race to be the Brexiteers’ choice because of their decision to quit the Cabinet after the Chequers meeting while outgoing EU Exit Secretary Dominic Raab has retained credibility because he only came into the Cabinet afterwards and attempted to make the best of a bad job. “Dom is the only one who has been in the Cabinet in recent months with any credibility left,” said the Tory MP.

Tory insiders report that the mood in the party grassroots has turned mutinous after the details of the Brexit deal emerged. “Only a genuine Brexiteer will placate the party membership now – there is no chance of a soggy compromise candidate getting through the final round of a leadership contest,” said another MP.

No Tory knows when the next party leadership contest is coming. But after this week, the battle lines are being very clearly drawn.