The Saturday briefing
KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
YOUR QUESTIONS ANSWERED
IS THERE anything you are desperately yearning to know? Are there any pressing factual disputes you would like us to help resolve? This is the page where we shall do our best to answer any questions you throw at us, whatever the subject.
Q I ONCE heard that if a butterfly flapped its wings in Africa it could cause a storm in the UK. With this in mind, what are the possible results of a jumbo jet crossing the Atlantic? Colin Rodney Cobb, by email
A THE original “Butterfly Effect” comment was made by mathematician/meteorologist Edward Lorenz in 1963 in a talk entitled “Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?”.
He was perhaps the first person to show that the chaos effect played a significant role in weather forecasting. Until the maths of chaos was introduced, it was generally assumed that increasingly accurate measurement of initial weather conditions would lead to increasingly accurate predictions of future weather.
Chaos Theory, however, showed that the tiniest changes in initial conditions can lead to massively different predictions. So the difference between a calm day and a hurricane may be as small as a butterfly’s wing flap. Even if you could measure all the butterfly flaps, the mere exhalation of the same butterfly may produce similarly vast differences.
That’s why modern weather forecasters tend to run their computer models first with observed data, then with the data slightly altered to see whether the predictions are similar or whether chaos is operating.
To answer your question: a jumbo jet can be much the same as a butterfly’s wing flap. Compared with the massive forces at work in driving our weather systems, it represents a tiny change in the initial conditions, so usually will have no discernible effect, but it could be the difference between a calm day and a hurricane, either way.
Q WHAT causes those beautiful Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) at the North Pole, and when is the best time of year to view them? David Garbutt, by email
A THE incredible light show happens when electrically charged particles released from the Sun enter Earth’s atmosphere and react with oxygen, nitrogen and other gases.
Displays can appear in many colours but green is the most common. The lights can be observed around the magnetic poles of the northern and southern hemispheres, with winter usually the best time of year, with some experts believing the optimum time is between 10pm and 2am.
The best shows come when there has been a big event on the Sun and it is facing Earth.
Q SOMETIMES when a person is in conversation they tap the side of their nose with their forefinger. Can you tell me what this means and from where it originated? Edmund Perks, Ivybridge, Devon
A THE 1823 poem A Visit From St Nicholas, more commonly known as The Night Before Christmas, by Clement C Moore, includes the lines: “And laying his finger aside of his nose And giving a nod, up the chimney he rose.” Santa Claus’s conspiratorial gesture to the protagonist of the poem – a dad who witnesses the filling of children’s stockings with toys – answers your question.
The tap, made from one person towards another, signifies that there is a shared secret, often pertaining to something suspicious or unorthodox.
One theory is that the provenance of this is the obvious link between the nose and smell, with the gesture relating to the metaphor of “sniffing out trouble”. So it can be used as a way of signalling knowledge, that someone or something is a threat and whatever is going on will be sniffed out.
The element of secrecy is an extension of this and comes from the idea that the giver and receiver of the nose tap have both sniffed out what’s really going on here, and no one else has.
Q DOES the National Lottery have records on how many big winners play online compared to the people who just buy tickets at a kiosk? Andy Vining, by email
A WITH odds of winning the jackpot standing at one in 45,057, 454, it is understandable players try anything they can to increase their chances. The Lottery team tell us that they cannot publicly break down the split of big winners as they are only allowed to release the method of play if the person goes public, which only happens in 10 per cent of cases. But across all prizes, the split of winners is 75 per cent retail tickets and 25 per cent online – roughly in line with the split of play.