Ireland’s storming victory shows the north-south divide has closed at last
REMEMBER three years ago and the World Cup semi-finals at Twickenham? Of the four sides involved, not one was from Europe.
Rugby union in these parts was castigated for being stuck in the stone ages, Neanderthal in its outlook compared to the renaissance rugby of the enlightened nations from the southern hemisphere. It was stuck in a loop of eternal catch-up.
Well guess what? The northern hemisphere has caught up. Not only that, it has edged past the south.
Ireland are the pin-ups, having beaten the All Blacks 16-9 on Saturday. Joe Schmidt is a certainty for World Rugby coach of the year and Johnny Sexton likewise for player of the year when the gongs are handed out on Sunday night in Monte Carlo.
But the look across the piece is an attractive one. The cumulative scoreline in matches between Six Nations sides and Rugby Championship opposition stands at 5-4 to the north this autumn. Home advantage is a factor, but coming on the back of a twoyear period in which England and Ireland have won series in Australia, Wales and Scotland have won in Argentina, and the Lions have drawn a series in New Zealand, there is a wider evidence of a shift in power.
There are four more clashes this weekend before the international window closes – Italy v New Zealand, Scotland v Argentina, Wales v South Africa and England v Australia – and it would be a surprise if that lead is not maintained, or even extended.
“The best thing to happen to northernhemisphere rugby was they didn’t make the semifinals at the last World Cup,” said All Blacks coach Steve Hansen. “They’ve gone away – Ireland in particular – and they’ve come back strong. England came back strong and won 18 in a row. When you have teams raising the bar and playing each other regularly, you raise the bar.”
The Wallabies arrive at Twickenham this weekend staring at an unprecedented six successive defeats against England. They have already seen their 10-year unbeaten run against Wales ended on this tour.
“It has always been a challenge coming here and it’s proving to be more difficult now with the recent run of results that we’ve had against teams like England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales, and from an All Blacks perspective, a tough game and a tough loss against Ireland,” said Australia’s scrumhalf Will Genia, who will win his 100th cap at Twickenham.
If the northern nations – two of whom are coached by Kiwis and one by an Australian – have kicked on, then playing departures to higher-paying European clubs have weakened all the Rugby Championship sides. South Africa in particular have been compromised.
There has been a general smoothing out in standards,
Now it’s about who holds their nerve
which makes the countdown to the World Cup and the tournament itself refreshingly unpredictable.
“All I’ll say is that from here until the World Cup there’s a lot that can happen,” said Genia. “Results can change like that. That’s obviously been shown by the fact that New Zealand were said to be favourites to the point where they said, ‘Give them the World Cup’, and they’ve just lost to Ireland. There is quality right across the field now. There is a whole bunch of teams who can win. It’s about who holds their nerve in tournament rugby.”
A spread of potential winners is exactly what Japan 2019 needs after back-to-back New Zealand triumphs, and Eddie Jones’ assessment is that there are now eight teams capable of lifting the Webb Ellis Cup.
He has a word of warning, though, for those who are reading too much into All Black vulnerability after defeat in Dublin.
“It will have no consequence on the World Cup,” said the England coach. “Ireland had a set of tactics, they stuck to them and it worked for them. The ball bounces your way sometimes, it doesn’t bounce your way other times. Those leprechauns helped the ball bounce in the right direction.
“If I was Steve Hansen I’d be hurting a lot now but I’d have the knowledge that they’re going to learn a lot from this game. After they play Italy this weekend they’ll have a summer to think about it and they’ll come back stronger and better.”