Downbeat economic forecasts dismissed as more Project Fear
GLOOMY forecasts that Theresa May’s Brexit deal will leave Britain much poorer than staying in the EU were yesterday dismissed as “more Project Fear”.
One survey predicted the agreement would shrink the economy by 3.9 per cent a year by 2030, costing the equivalent of £1,090 a year per person.
A separate study to be issued today estimates it could reduce GDP even more, compared with staying part of the single market.
But MP John Redwood said it was simply the same Remain tactics in the run-up to the 2016 referendum.
Former Cabinet minister Mr Redwood said: “They told us there would be a big hit to the economy in the year after a vote to Leave, which was completely wrong.
“This is more Project Fear, but with long-term forecasts this time so that they do not have to explain anytime soon why they have got them wrong again.”
A survey by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research was commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign – which is calling for a referendum to choose between Mrs May’s deal and staying in the EU.
It forecast that the deal was likely to leave the UK £100billion a year poorer, with GDP per head falling by three per cent a year, compared with no Brexit. It relied mainly on the premise that it would be harder for Britain’s services sector to attract investment because of new barriers to trade.
A separate report by the Centre for Economic Performance said the PM’s dealcould reduce UK GDP per person 10 years after Brexit by 1.9 to 5.5 per cent.
Professor Anand Menon, director of the think tank, said: “Our estimates provide a clear indication of the broad scale of the impact of the deal negotiated by the PM.” Tory former trade minister Anna Soubry said latest analyses used different methods and were also based on an actual deal and all showed Britain would be worse off outside the EU.
She believed a new referendum would cancel Brexit, with older Leave voters in particular “increasingly concerned and worried” about their children’s and grandchildren’s futures.
The Government’s own analysis of the benefits of Mrs May’s deal will be revealed to MPs this week.