Options are ‘bad for Britain’
BRITAIN will be worse off outside the EU under every Brexit option, the Government said yesterday in an official analysis document that infuriated Brexit campaigners.
Long-term forecasts released by Whitehall estimate that the UK economy could be up to 9.3 per cent smaller by 2035 if the country left the EU without a deal, compared with staying in the bloc under the current terms.
Even with a deal along the lines of Theresa May’s agreement with Brussels, national output could be up to 3.9 per cent lower over the same period compared to the current arrangements, according to the figures.
The report was published in an attempt to warn MPs that blocking the Prime Minister’s deal in a crunch Commons vote next month could lead to long-term damage to the country’s economic growth.
Chancellor Philip Hammond said the UK would be worse off “in pure economic terms” under all possible Brexit outcomes.
“What the Prime Minister’s deal does is absolutely minimise those costs, and reduces to an absolute minimum the economic impact of leaving the EU, while delivering the political benefits, in terms of being able to do third-country trade deals, having control of our fishing waters, and the many other issues that will be delivered politically,” Mr Hammond said.
He added: “I’m not trying to scare anybody and I reject the term scaremongering.”
Mrs May hit a contrasting note, however, insisting the analysis did not mean the country would be “poorer in the future than we are today”.
Brexit campaigners reacted angrily to the gloomy predictions that recalled the alarm raised by the Treasury under former Chancellor George Osborne in the run-up to the 2016 referendum.
John Longworth, chairman of the pro-Brexit campaign group
Leave Means Leave and former boss of the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “We absolutely predicted this relaunch of Project Fear with the Treasury putting out faux economic predictions, just ahead of the PM trying to get the worst deal in history through parliament.”
Yesterday’s Whitehall document examined the potential impact on the country’s GDP resulting from altered trade levels under a series of possible post-Brexit scenarios.
It was released following demands from MPs for official analysis ahead of the so-called “meaningful vote” on Mrs May’s EU deal due in the Commons on December 11.
The 83-page document was drawn up by officials from Whitehall departments including the Treasury, the Department for Exiting the EU, Industry, Environment, International Trade and the Home Office. Figures in the document showed possible economic affects from a range of outcomes including no-deal, a Canada-style free trade deal with the EU, membership of the European Economic Area that would involve continued acceptance of EU free movement rules and close ties based on the Prime Minister’s proposals agreed at her Chequers country residence last summer. ●Theresa May last night angrily accused Labour of trying to “frustrate Brexit”.
The Prime Minister hit out after Shadow chancellor John McDonnell suggested it is “inevitable” a second referendum will be called if Mrs May’s so-called divorce deal is defeated in the Commons.
She said: “His comments about the second referendum show that what the Labour party want to do is frustrate Brexit.”
9.3% shrinkage of economy by 2035
3.9% drop in national output has been estimated