It’s not too late to thrash out a better Brexit deal
THIS Conservative Government appears to be heading straight for a brick wall over the Prime Minister’s deal with the EU. In the momentous vote in the Commons tomorrow on the Withdrawal Agreement, it now looks almost certain that Theresa May will suffer a humiliating defeat. According to some cautious estimates, at least 60 Tory MPs will vote against her. Others put the figure much higher, at more than 100.
If anything like those numbers are fulfilled, the vote will represent one of the heaviest blows to any government in the long saga of British democracy. In terms of a haemorrhage of backbench support on a key Ministerial policy, the most telling historical comparisons are with the Norway debate of May 1940, when a large Tory rebellion brought down Neville Chamberlain, and the Carlton Club revolt in 1922 which ended Lloyd George’s Coalition
But this is a crisis that was never meant to happen. During the autumn, the fashionable theory at Westminster was that, once Theresa May had achieved a deal with Brussels, then the political landscape would be transformed. In this scenario, as public opinion rallied behind her, MPs on all sides would come under tremendous pressure to approve her hardwon agreement.
Yet the very opposite process has occurred. Far from bolstering May’s position, the deal has badly undermined her. A string of front-benchers have resigned, including William Quince from his Defence portfolio yesterday, while Tory MPs have been vociferous in their condemnation. Faced with this mounting disenchantment, one Conservative whip moaned at the weekend, “at this point we were supposed to be peeling off the rebels. Instead, they’re peeling off our supporters.”
So grim is the Parliamentary outlook for May that some of her allies have suggested that tomorrow’s vote should be postponed, though it is hard to see what such a desperate move would achieve except to crank up the discontent.
Nor is the public keen to back the Prime Minister. One recent poll showed that 60 per cent of voters believe her proposed agreement is “bad for the country”, a finding reinforced by this paper’s latest online survey in which 86 per cent of respondents were hostile to it. None of this should come as a surprise. Behind the electorate’s disillusion and the fevered plotting at Westminster lies the fundamental reality that the deal is a rotten one, which miserably fails to deliver on the 2016 Referendum vote for genuine independence. On the contrary, it offers only a Zombie Brexit of perpetual EU rule, without any real chance to embrace global trade or national democracy.
It is highly revealing that none of the deal’s backers, not even the Prime Minister herself, try to defend the proposal on its own merits. Instead they resort to a weird mix of panic and boredom.
On one hand, therefore, we are warned that there will be utter chaos if the deal is rejected tomorrow, including economic meltdown, paralysis across the transport network, a collapse in medical supplies and food shortages.
On the other hand, ministers proclaim that Brexit has become so tedious that the public just want it over with, so any deal will do. This is an essentially frivolous argument, reducing the great question of our national destiny to nothing more than a matter of convenient timetabling. Even Theresa May said yesterday in a newspaper interview that “most people want us to get it all wrapped up by Christmas,” as if Brexit were just a present under the tree.
But, apart from its sheer superficiality, the huge flaw in such an assertion is that May’s deal will not settle Brexit at all, even if it were passed by the Commons tomorrow. Because the so-called “political declaration” that accompanies the Withdrawal Agreement is so wilfully vague, any approval by MPs would just serve to mark the beginning of years of protracted negotiations, with the EU dictating terms and lacking any incentive to end the nightmare.
It is a farce, which reflects the fact that the Government’s whole Brexit strategy has been woefully misguided and timorous. The EU’s demands over the Irish border and cash upfront have been meekly accepted, denying Britain any real leverage in negotiations. A
‘This crisis was never meant to happen’
T the same time, beyond the rhetorical shroud-waving, no serious preparations have been made for Brexit without a deal, while the Tories, through complacency and incompetence, threw away their Commons majority at last year’s poor General Election.
It cannot be predicted what might happen after May’s likely defeat tomorrow. There could be moves towards a vote of no confidence in her leadership or the Government. Remainers will demand another referendum, Labour another General Election.
But the Prime Minister’s only hope of survival is to refashion her deal, by demanding further concessions from Brussels, particularly over the so-called Irish backstop which threatens to keep Britain in an indefinite customs union.
Without both a time limit and an escape mechanism, the backstop would be intolerable. As Lord Falconer, the former Labour Lord Chancellor, said recently, “there can’t be a border arrangement in public international law which has to last in perpetuity”.
A new round of negotiations with the EU would demolish the PM’s case that this is “the only deal on the table”, as well as begging the question as to why she had not taken a tougher stance before this point.
But it is still not too late for change. The delivery of a real Brexit matters more than Prime Ministerial pride.