The Irish blockade won’t halt Boris’s Brexit campaign
THE Brexit wreckers are starting to gloat. They think that they have cornered Boris Johnson, fatally damaged his premiership and thwarted Britain’s imminent departure from the EU.
Due to their ruthless control of Parliament, the Prime Minister may have little choice but to ask Brussels for yet another delay in Brexit if no withdrawal agreement is reached in the next few days – even though such a request would contradict his solemn pledge that Britain would be out by the end of October, “come what may”.
Last week, during the Tory conference, a burst of optimism greeted a potential breakthrough by the Government in the Brexit stalemate. Following his exhilarating leader’s speech, Johnson released details of his new compromise proposal to settle the vexed question of the Irish border.
His move led to excitable talk a deal could be in sight, with Tory Brexiteers, Democratic Unionists from Ulster, and Labour moderates all indicating their early support for the plan.
But since then, those high hopes have largely evaporated. Predictably, many of the Labour dissidents have backtracked under pressure from their party machine, while the EU has expressed its hostility.
ABOVE all, the Irish Government, led by Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar, has dismissed Boris’s plan as the route to “no deal”.
Varadkar justifies this negative stance by claiming that the compromise proposals will not only threaten the Good Friday Agreement by establishing a hard customs border, but will also undermine the Irish economy by creating friction and bureaucracy.
But apart from such concerns, there is also cynical politics at play. Trailing in the polls to his Fianna Fail rival Micheal Martin, Varadkar seeks to pose as the champion national pride.
More importantly, he believes that the Irish issue can be used to block Brexit. His theory is that if there is yet more Brexit paralysis, then the pressure for a second EU referendum will become irresistible. Indeed on Friday he was explicit about his wish for another vote.
“That’s what the British people want but their political system is not able to give them the choice,” he said. His own country is used to such re-runs. Twice this century, over the EU’s Nice Treaty and Lisbon Treaty, second referendums were staged to ensure the victory of the proBrussels establishment after Irish voters initially delivered the “wrong” verdict.
But Varadkar has badly miscalculated if the thinks the same outcome will happen here. For a start, there is no overwhelming public demand for such a of Irish vote, contrary to what he says. Furthermore, in the event of a second referendum, the Leave option could well triumph again. Few voters have changed their minds since 2016.
MOST polls show that the country is evenly split at present but that picture could change dramatically in a campaign, when Leavers will be able to run on a powerful message of the need to uphold democracy. “Tell them again,” would be the simple, winning theme.
The Remainers could be making another miscalculation if they think Boris will be broken by their law which forces him to accept a delay if he fails to secure a deal. Voters, fed up with the cynical manoeuvres of the pro-Brussels brigade, may well be more forgiving. Many will see a Prime Minister valiantly trying to implement the 2016 result, but prevented by the enemies of democracy.
The electorate could reward him with a workable majority to get Brexit done.Tellingly, one opinion poll yesterday gave the Tories a lead of 15 per cent over Labour, enough for a landslide.
The anti-Brexiteers are far more divided and fearful than they appear.They sneer at Boris but are scared of his connection with the public.
That explains why they will not vote for a general election or hold a vote of no confidence in his Government.They cannot even decide who should be caretaker prime minister if Boris were to be ousted.
Jeremy Corbyn wants the job, but his extremism makes that impossible. So other names have been suggested, including Speaker John Bercow, the Tory Europhile Ken Clarke and even Labour veteran Margaret Beckett, who once called herself a “moron” for backing Corbyn’s leadership bid in 2015.
She would have more reason to kick herself if she gets involved in a Remainer plot to install a misnamed Government of National Unity, whose sole purpose would be to halt Brexit. It is the British public who should choose our Government.
‘Remainers are far more divided and fearful than they appear’