BORIS WARNS: VIRUS LIKELY TO SPREAD WITHIN DAYS
Britain’s infection toll hits 39 as PM spells out battle plan to contain outbreak
BORIS Johnson last night warned that a significant outbreak of coronavirus across the UK is likely over the coming days.
As the number of confirmed infections in Britain reached 39, the Prime Minister approved a battle plan for containing and delaying the spread of the disease at a
meeting of the Whitehall Cobra emergency committee.
Ministers could instruct millions of employees to work from home to slash unnecessary travel under a “social distancing” strategy, the Government said.
Mr Johnson will also seek to rush legislation through Parliament by the end of the month allowing emergency powers to limit large public gatherings and maintain supply chains for food and other essentials.
At the Cobra meeting, Chancellor Rishi Sunak also warned ministers of the threat of a worldwide economic downturn after the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development raised concern about the biggest hit to world growth since the 2008 financial crisis.
Last night Mr Johnson said: “It is highly likely coronavirus will spread more widely in the coming days and weeks, which is why we’re making every possible preparation.
“We have agreed a plan, which I will set out in detail today, so if the virus should spread, we are ready to take necessary steps to contain it and protect the most vulnerable.
“But we can all continue to do our bit to fight this virus – by washing our hands with soap and water for the length of time it takes to sing Happy Birthday twice.”
In a BBC interview last night, the Prime Minister said “a very significant expansion of coronavirus in the UK population” was “clearly on the cards”.
He said: “At the moment, it’s difficult to speculate about exactly how it may or may not progress but what I think you can say with a fair degree of certainty is that it is much more likely than not that we will face a challenge in the weeks and months ahead.
“You’ve got to consider the realistic possibility that there is now going to be a significant expansion in the number of cases.”
Mr Johnson said the Government was preparing emergency measures including closing schools and cancelling major public events that
could be introduced if and when the outbreak spreads.
He added: “What we’ve got is a range of calibrated responses. The issue will be when and how and with what logic to apply them.
“Of course we will do everything we can to stop the spread of the disease.”
Measures in the plan include:
● The possibility of the Government encouraging widespread home working and discouraging
unnecessary travel as part of a “social distancing” strategy.
● Emergency registration of retired health professionals who could be recalled to help out the NHS.
● Possible relaxation of rules around staff to pupil ratios in education and childcare settings.
● Every Government department will have a designated minister in charge of leading the departmental response to the virus outbreak.
● A “war room” will be set up in
the Cabinet Office bringing together experts and scientists from across the Government and the NHS to prepare a massive public information campaign.
Professor Paul Cosford, emeritus medical director of Public Health England, also warned that widespread transmission of coronavirus in the UK was likely.
He said: “I wouldn’t say anything is inevitable, but it is now highly likely. At the moment, the vast
majority of cases we see in the UK are still linked to countries where there is more widespread infection, either in Italy or South-east Asia.
“It is true to say there is a small number now where it is much more difficult to find that link and that is leading us to think we may well see more widespread infection in the UK fairly soon.
“It could happen in the next few days or it could take a little longer.”
During yesterday’s Cobra meeting, Mr Sunak said the Treasury was making preparations with the Bank of England and financial regulators for the economic impact.
Extra cash for the NHS is expected to be announced later this week.
Mr Sunak said: “The whole Government is working closely together to tackle the spread of Covid-19.We are well prepared for this global threat and, as the wider economic picture becomes clearer, we stand ready to announce further support where needed.”
YOU really don’t need me to tell you about coronavirus. I mean that literally: according to the latest poll by Populus, coronavirus was by far the most talked about subject last month.
In yesterday’s poll, 76 per cent of the public said the spread of coronavirus (or Covid-19, to give it its technical name) was the story to which they had paid most attention – a figure that even Brexit rarely reached in previous such polls.
So far, few of us appear to have fallen victim to full-scale panic, with our Keep Calm and Carry On motto – although I heard yesterday of someone who has bought three months’ supply of toilet roll.
Indeed, some commentators downplay its impact here altogether. As I write, the everchanging blizzard of figures totals 90,225 cases and 3,080 deaths worldwide. But compared with seasonal flu, which causes up to 646,000 deaths a year, they argue, it’s barely worth worrying about.
So far, there have been just 39 confirmed cases in the UK.
But the nature of a pandemic – if coronavirus can yet be defined as one – is that its spread takes a while, doesn’t seem that bad at first... and then suddenly accelerates.
AND all the projections show that we are more likely than not to see just that acceleration here. The worst-case models show that 80 per cent of the population may get the virus, which would mean – based on the death rate seen so far elsewhere – up to 500,000 deaths in the UK.
Looking at the global figures, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London has calculated “with an enormous amount of uncertainty” that one per cent of those infected might die – with a fourfold margin of error in each direction.
A death rate of 0.25 per cent would be similar to the 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics, which killed at least one million people. A four per cent rate would compare with the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic... with a devastating death toll estimated at 40 to 50 million.
So far, most of those who have died have had pre-existing health conditions – not that that is any less of a worry. And we don’t know if this will change as the virus spreads and adapts.
The Government faces two choices in its strategy.
On the one hand, we could go down the Chinese route and in effect, lock the country down to minimise the impact.
At the weekend, newspapers carried well-sourced reports of plans being drawn up to order millions of workers to work from home, with firms told to halt all “unnecessary travel” in a “social distancing” strategy.
Ministers are said to be working on the assumption that half the population could be off work because of fears of infection, quarantine and school and transport closures. One aim of this would be to delay the “peak” of any outbreak until the summer, when the warmer climate would slow its spread and the NHS would be in a better position to cope.
But such a response would come at great economic cost, which could be worse even than the 2008 banking crash.
The impact on the global economy is already huge, with one leading economist saying yesterday that “the coronavirus has put the world economy in survival mode”. Last week stock markets suffered their worst performance since the 2008 credit crunch.
The Baltic Dry Index, a forward-looking indicator of global trade, has fallen by half and oil prices are down by about a quarter so far this year. The OECD has warned that global growth could be halved this year. But the Bank of England aims to stabilise the financial markets, and has pledged, along with other central banks, to ease Covid-19’s economic impact.
Another option is to try to minimise the economic cost and let the virus come through and pass as soon as possible.
BUT the human cost of that would be impossible for any government to contemplate. Chinese data showed 14 per cent of those infected have a severe response, and five per cent are critically ill, needing intensive care.
There is no reason to think the impact here will be different. That would be a massive crisis the NHS simply could not cope with.
It’s vital that we do not panic – not least because it would be pointless. The Government is about to launch a massive public information campaign, and the scientists all say that the best way for us to react is to observe basic health measures such as washing our hands properly.
It might not seem like much – but it’s our best weapon against infection.
‘It’s said coronavirus has put the world economy in survival mode’