IT’S EASY TO MAKE A DRAMA OUT OF A VIRUS...BUT THE NUMBERS DON’T ADD UP

THERE IS a clear line of progression from concern to worry and thence to panic. Our country, in the matter of coronavirus, seems to have run the gamut faster than most of us can cope with a cup of tea. But must we all summon solicitors to update our wills?

The key to the panic is the extreme speed of contagion.With normal flu the sufferer starts to feel groggy and retires to bed with the usual medications about the time they become contagious. A week, maybe two, the flu recedes and we are back to normal.With coronavirus (let me call it CV) there is a 10 or 14-day gap.

The infected person notices nothing and neither does anyone else – for about a week. But all that time they are contagious. Hence the rapid spread. But is it fatal? At the first outset we were told it probably was. But the figures so far do not support that.

Exclude China where the healthcare for the hoi polloi is dire. Iran ditto. At the time of writing Britain had about 90 cases, fatalities zero. One Englishman had died – in Japan after being removed from a cruise ship.

Singapore, also with excellent facilities, has had 93 cases – zero deaths. Germany – 48 and zero. Every year we have seasonal winter flu that carries away the old, frail and those with a pre-existent medical weakness. Last year the figure was about 17,000.Yet we make no fuss about that because each year about 550,000 die – overwhelmingly of simple old age.

By midsummer (I suspect) CV will be behind us with a vaccine in place. In the interim how many will catch it and how many die? So far, and with non-panic precautions, a reasonable guess would be a million and one per cent thereof.You do not close down a nation of 67 million for that. Cynical? No, just likely.