COVID-19 CRISIS: NHS WAITING LIST COULD HIT 10
‘Uphill battle’ to sort out patient care
TEN million people may be on NHS waiting lists by the end of the year due to delays caused by Covid-19, health chiefs warn today.
The figure is based on “realistic scenario” modelling for England in which services are back at full capacity in 12 months. It will near 11 million if the UK is
hit by a second wave and no vaccine or treatment is found, according to the NHS Confederation.
The news comes after 286 new deaths yesterday took Britain’s coronavirus toll to 40,883.
Around 4.2 million people were already on waiting lists for routine treatments including cataract removals and hip or knee replacements when the outbreak hit.
Further delays due to the pandemic and challenges with staffing and social distancing mean the backlog has now skyrocketed.
Patients affected during the 79 days the UK has spent in lockdown include those waiting for non-urgent surgery, cancer treatment and heart procedures.
A report from the NHS Confederation, which represents more than 500 health and care bodies, says the NHS “faces an uphill battle” in coming months.
It must continue to care for thousands of sick and recovering coronavirus patients while also restarting services.
Chief executive Niall Dickson said: “The NHS wants to get back to providing these vital services. The virus has inflicted pain and suffering throughout the UK.
“But we also know the measures to combat it have come at a
It will not be possible simply to ‘switch on’ the NHS services
terrible cost to those who have not been able to access the care, treatment and support they need and to many whose conditions have gone undiagnosed.
“There is a real determination to rise to this challenge, but it will need extra funding and capacity.”
The modelling, which is not included in the report, found that even an “optimistic scenario” in which services are able to return to normal more quickly would see waiting lists reach eight million by the end of the year.
The NHS has begun the daunting challenge of restoring services to pre-virus levels, but progress is expected to be slow.
Services must operate with much reduced capacity, possibly 60 per cent of normal, because of the need for infection control measures such as social distancing, NHS Confederation said.
Many hospitals have also reported that their financial position is rapidly deteriorating.
Mr Dickson has written to the Prime Minister urging the Government to set realistic expectations about what can be achieved in the coming months.
He recommended that a deal with the private hospital sector be extended and called for further assurances on the Test and Trace programme. His letter said: “We have seen the public’s admiration and appreciation for the NHS and care services. However, if that support is to be maintained we need to manage expectations.
“It will not be possible simply to ‘switch on’ NHS services.”
The warning comes after the Society for Acute Medicine warned earlier this week that the NHS must prepare for a “winter like no other” as it copes both with seasonal flu and coronavirus.
Rachel Power, chief executive of the Patients Association, said: “It may have been right for the NHS to take the drastic action of cancelling or delaying treatment.
“But the waiting lists have been allowed to get very long following the sustained underfunding of the NHS from 2010.” Nigel Edwards, chief executive of health think tank the Nuffield Trust, said: “As long as we are asking the NHS to remain prepared for a second spike of Covid-19, we need to see honesty that there will be a profound change in the way patients receive healthcare.”
The Royal College of Nursing said: “For burnt-out nursing staff on short-staffed wards, care homes or clinics, it will be a struggle to restart services. The legacy of this pandemic is yet to dawn.”
The Health Department said: “Guidance has been issued to the NHS about how they should restart services in a safe way.”