ANALYSIS

ONCE more the spectre of war stalks Europe’s eastern frontiers, as a Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s borders threatens to ignite conflict between the two countries.

Back in early 2014, Russia’s President Putin took advantage of Ukraine’s democratic revolution to seize the Crimea.

Shortly after, Russia helped dismember eastern Ukraine through separatist uprisings.

Russia has funded and armed the rebels ever since.

By its own account, Russia has moved two armies and three paratrooper units to its western border with Ukraine. Further Russian mobilisations have taken place in Crimea.

Ukraine now faces a cordon of steel to its east and south.

Most likely the Russians are sabre rattling, to dissuade Ukraine from pursuing Nato membership and to encourage a resolution of the eastern Ukrainian situation in its favour.

But there is always a danger with Putin – given past form in Ukraine and Georgia – that he isn’t bluffing.

Resolute

Russia doesn’t need a full invasion to cause damage. Even a limited “peacekeeping” intervention would entrench Russian control of eastern Ukraine irrevocably.

This is something Ukraine’s Western allies should resist if we are serious about resisting Russian aggression and preserving the primacy of international law.

The US, UK and Germany have urged de-escalation, with US President Biden suggesting a bilateral summit with Putin to resolve tensions.

But Nato members must go further to persuade Putin that aggressive action will have real consequences.

An easy way to do this would be to promise that a Russian invasion would lead to the very Nato membership for Ukraine Putin is so desperate to stop.

Above all, we need strong, principled and resolute US leadership on this issue.

For there is just the possibility that Putin is using this episode to test the mettle of the Biden administration.

And how Biden meets that challenge may set the course not just for Ukraine, but for us all, over the next four years.