HIT OR MISS? OUR VERDICT ON CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITMENTS

PRIME Minister Boris Johnson said the priorities for the UN Climate Change Conference was to garner international commitments on “coal, cars, cash and trees”. Following two weeks of strenuous negotiations, with nearly 200 countries, we weigh up the hits and misses.

MISS

PROBLEM: Coal is cheap and plentiful but when it burns, it releases more carbon dioxide than oil or gas. Air pollution from coal-fired power plants is linked with asthma, cancer, heart and lung ailments and acid rain. Mr Johnson was seeking a phase out of coal - and reductions in other fossil fuel use. WHAT HAPPENED? The first COP26 draft text was released with an unprecedented acknowledgment of the role of fossil fuels in climate change. A small group of countries agreed to set an end date for oil

- COAL:

and gas production. But the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance failed to get the support of the world’s biggest oil producers – the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada – or Europe’s largest producers, the

UK and Norway. VERDICT: Major coal users and producers were absent and a watered down second draft text appeared to back away from a call to end all use of coal and phase out fossil fuel subsidies completely.

HIT - CARS:

PROBLEM: Private transport, which largely runs on fossil fuels, is one of the world’s biggest sources of greenhouse gases. Vehicle emissions are also a significant source of fine particulate matter and nitrogen oxides that are major causes of urban air pollution.

WHAT HAPPENED? At least 22 countries have signed a pledge to reach a 100 per cent share of sales of new cars and vans being zero emission by 2035 for leading markets and 2040 for other regions. But most of the major vehiclemanufacturing nations – Germany, Japan, the US, China, and France – were absent from the deal. VERDICT: Countries have shifted into the right gear on this issue but the climate cannot wait for others to get on board with zeroemission vehicles. It is time to get out of the slow lane.

MISS - CASH

PROBLEM: It is going to be far more difficult for developing nations to adapt to the effects of climate when there is less money to pay for new infrastructure and technology. Richer nations, which historically are responsible for the vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions, have pledged to give them $100billion a year between 2020 and 2050. But last month they admitted they would not hit $100billion until 2023. WHAT HAPPENED? Finance was a major sticking point at the Glasgow summit. The latest draft text gives dates, requesting countries to double adaptation finance by the end of 2025. VERDICT: There was no reference in the latest draft to making up the $100billion shortfall since countries failed to meet that goal in 2020 and 2021. The UN warned poor countries need several hundred billion dollars a year to adapt to climate change by the end of the decade.

MISS

- BANKS AND FINANCIERS:

PROBLEM: Experts say the transition to net zero will require $150trillion of investment over the

next 30 years, including £1.4trillion in the UK. Much of that will come from the private sector. WHAT HAPPENED? Banks, insurers and investors with $130trillion (£97trillion) at their disposal pledged to put combating climate change at the centre of their work, and meet net zero goals by 2050. VERDICT: This is a step in the right direction but a clearer definition of what net zero means for the finance sector is needed. The announcement is misleading because this is not the amount that will be spent on tackling climate change.

HIT - TREES: Problem: The loss of trees poses a huge risk to biodiversity and can cause soil erosion, flooding and raise greenhouse gases. But forests act as carbon stores. WHAT HAPPENED? More than 130 leaders have promised to end and reverse deforestation by 2030. The pledge includes £14billion of public and private funds. VERDICT: It is good to have a commitment to end forest destruction from so many countries and significant

funding for it.

HIT METHANE:

PROBLEM: Methane, though relatively short-lived, is a potent greenhouse gas, trapping 86 times more heat than carbon dioxide. Nearly 20 per cent of the planet’s warming can be attributed to methane. WHAT HAPPENED? The United States and China, the world’s two largest emitters of carbon dioxide, unveiled a surprise commitment to ramp up cooperation tackling climate change, including by cutting methane emissions. Before that, 120 countries joined a pact to slash planet-warming methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030. VERDICT: It is encouraging to see nations at odds in so many areas finding common ground on one of the biggest challenges humanity faces. One of the most important things the world can do is to reduce our methane as quickly as

possible.

HIT - NEW TARGETS:

PROBLEM: The UK was among countries calling for a summit agreement where leaders would return with more ambitious emission reduction targets by the end of 2023. WHAT HAPPENED? The latest draft ramps up language on getting countries to “revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets” in their national plans by the end of 2022 to align with global goals to limit temperature rises to “well below” 2C and try to limit them to 1.5C. VERDICT: This is positive as it keeps 1.5C within reach.

MISS - PLEDGES:

PROBLEM: Scientists have warned that keeping temperature rises to 1.5C above preindustrial levels – beyond which the worst impacts of climate change will be felt – requires global emissions to be cut by 45 per cent by 2030, and to zero overall by mid-century. WHAT HAPPENED? Commitments made at COP26 for emissions cuts up to 2030 leave the world off track to meet the goal, and could see warming of 2.4C over the long term. VERDICT: Although there is a recognition that 1.5C is the goal, we are way off track to meet that. We’re still on track for a world of 2.4C global warming.

For many parts of the world that is a death sentence.