True number of migrants is far higher... and doesn’t include those arriving illegally
figures grossly underestimate the true number of migrants entering Britain, with one campaign group warning: “We really are standing on the edge of a cliff.”
Net migration now stands at 606,000, according to the Office for National Statistics.
But the real figure is thought to be nearer 750,000 after methodological changes make published numbers appear “lower than they otherwise would have been”.
The claim was made by Migration Watch UK, which will next week launch a campaign to cut immigration.
Last night chairman Alp Mehmet laid bare the crisis that awaits Britain from a decades-long failure to get a grip on migration, saying: “We really are standing on the edge of the cliff.”
Petition
He added: “The Prime Minister has abandoned any effort to cut immigration from these stratospheric levels. So we will now campaign for the public to sign a petition calling for net migration to be cut to less than 100,000 a year.
“This will be an opportunity, at last, for the public to express their concern about the fundamental changes to the nature of Britain.”
A slew of experts, demographers and officials disagree on the accepted figure.
The ONS, which compiles the figures, checked by the UK Statistics Authority, only added to the confusion last night when it told the Daily Express its methods were “clearly experimental and in development”. The scandal comes after former Prime Minister David Cameron promised to slash net migration to under 100,000 in a 2010 pledge. Yet in 2013/14 net migration hit 243,000, returning to levels under Labour.
Migration has increased the UK population by nearly seven million over the past 20 years – equal to seven times the population of Birmingham.
Fresh scepticism surrounding official figures comes as experts pointed to the fact the public was told only around 3.5 million would apply to remain in the UK under the EU settlement scheme. The actual figure – 7.2 million – was more than double that.
There is also concern at the number of students who enter the UK but fail to leave. It has been widely claimed 97 per cent of overseas students depart after graduating.
Yet this is not the case, according to Migration Watch. Mr Mehmet said: “Not so long ago it was said 97 per cent of all students leave, based on checks at the point of exit. But, according to the ONS, four in 10 overseas students – 130,000 in 2018/19 – either extended their permission to remain in the country or were not identified as leaving on time.
“And let’s not forget the UN’s definition of immigration is someone who is moving from a country intending to be away at least a year and entering another country and staying for a year. It’s important that students are included in the figures.”
Net migration is calculated by estimating how many people migrate to the UK for at least a year and subtracting the number of long-term residents who emigrate overseas.
Methodological changes meant numbers appear lower than they otherwise would have been.
Officially the latest net migration figure is 606,000. This includes 1.2 million in total long-term immigration, 557,000 in emigra
‘Four in 10 overseas students either extended their permission to stay or did not leave on time’
tion. The total is 118,000 higher than the previous annual record.
This included 52,000 from Hong Kong and 114,000 Ukrainians arriving here via humanitarian routes.
Net migration of EU nationals was minus 51,000, of non-EU nationals was 662,000 and of British nationals was minus 4,000.
Estimates
Official figures do not count those arriving here illegally, although those who are ultimately allowed to stay are included – for example, some on cross-Channel boats from France.
Some disappear into the black economy. Others, either intercepted at the border or who turn themselves in voluntarily, might subsequently claim asylum. Nearly all of those arriving illegally across the Channel go on to do so.
Small boat arrivals accounted for about 45 per cent of asylum applications in 2022.
In total, 45,755 migrants crossed the Channel last year, the highest number since records started being recorded in 2018.
Already this year more than 5,000 migrants have crossed the English Channel in defiance of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats”.
The ONS previously based its migration estimates on a questionnaire conducted in major airports such as Heathrow and Gatwick, known as the International Passenger Survey.
But the audit was not carried out at other busy gateways including Luton and Leeds.
Since April 2021, the ONS has produced “experimental” migration data set using administrative data, including visa and tax records, alongside modelling and surveys.
The Home Office was asked whether it accepted the official published figure as entirely accurate. It said it would not comment on methodology.
The ONS said: “While our methods are clearly experimental and in development, we have confidence these migration statistics are the best estimates possible from the available data. They are underpinned by many sources, including the 2021 Census, using methods developed in consultation with the leading experts in the field.
“The figures include asylum seekers for the first time since the pandemic and this mainly accounts for the upwards revision to our historical numbers. In addition, these new methods are based on actual travel patterns, rather than the stated intentions of survey respondents.
“While this provides a more accurate picture of migration overall, it takes time to get a complete picture of people’s behaviour.
“The process of provisional and revised estimates therefore will likely be a feature of migration and population estimates for a period.”
MIGRATION has reached record levels according to official figures – but now we learn that the true numbers coming to the UK may be even higher.
Experts believe that net migration has reached 750,000.That’s one and a half times the population of a major city such as Manchester or Leeds, every year.
It’s deeply worrying that we don’t have a clear picture of how many people are entering the UK. Even the Office for National Statistics says the current official statistics are “experimental”.
At a time when our public services are under immense strain and much of the country is suffering a housing shortage, it is essential that migration is controlled.