GABRIELLE REID

S-RM Global Intelligence and Cyber Security Consultancy

A KEY concern for the Israel-Palestinian conflict has long been regional escalation.

With Iran having gone ahead with its threatened strike on Israel last Saturday in retaliation for an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, the United States and other regional stakeholders will now be primarily concerned with ensuring restraint and proportionality of any Israeli response.

Any disproportionate response from Israel has the potential to further escalate the situation potentially, though still unlikely, to the point of direct military contact between Israel and Iran.

Ensuring such restraint is no easy task with Israel, and the US, together with other regional players, having competing priorities.

While most regional stakeholders maintain the desire to de-escalate the situation, competing efforts to demonstrate a lack of tolerance for escalation by the other side has the capacity to create a vicious cycle of responses that slowly edge towards worsening hostilities.

Reaction

Much of what happens next will be down to what Israel determines is sufficient of a reaction.

With the US having played an important role in Israel’s defence, there is potential that the Biden administration has gained some leverage over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ensure a tempered response.

Israel’s success in repelling the Iranian attack – in large part due to a US-led Middle Eastern alliance that facilitated intelligence sharing – will be rightly touted as an important example of forging cooperation over competition, and an avenue that will remain in the best interests of the US and Middle East governments.

And, Israel has already shown the desire to avoid a hasty reprisal, stating any response will take place at a time and manner of its choosing.

This echoes the relatively measured response adopted by Iran – marked by its timely warning of a reprisal attack.

These – under the circumstances – tempered and forewarned responses will likely be to avoid further direct engagement while still demonstrating condemnation of the actions of their adversaries.