The greatest threat to Labour’s hold on Oldham? Jeremy Corbyn!
As Ukip surges before today’s by-election...
Whatever the result of today’s fascinating by- election in West Oldham and royton, the runner-up will be in good company. a young Winston Churchill fought his first campaign in the 1899 by-election here — and he lost, too.
While that might be a consoling thought for the Labour candidate here as he sees his party’s once-mighty fan base shrivelling in the face of a resurgent Ukip, it will be scant comfort to Jeremy Corbyn.
For this increasingly ill-tempered contest will not be a referendum on the Government. the tories are 150-1 outsiders. rather, tonight will deliver the first proper electoral verdict on Mr Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party. It is also a timely reassessment of Nigel Farage’s aspirations to make Ukip a credible alternative to Labour in the urban North of england.
the mood has been ugly, with Labour denunciations of Ukip as ‘evil’, and Ukip countercharges of sexism and links to tax avoidance.
although Labour is still the bookies’ favourite — just — there is no doubt that its whopping 14,738 majority, won just seven months ago at the General election by the late Michael Meacher, will be slashed. For it is now abundantly clear that many traditional Labour voters find Mr Corbyn’s brand of North London peacenik republicanism is not for them.
‘he’s a complete pillock,’ says Keith Lane, 64, a retired businessman, shopping in royton’s market square. ‘he won’t sing the national anthem, he’s not behind the Queen. I’d rather have Putin,’ says Keith’s friend, former bank clerk Marilyn Muir. Both have been regular Labour voters up until now. So who gets their vote? ‘Whoever is going to get Cameron out — and that’s Ukip,’ says Marilyn.
at which point, Mr Corbyn’s greatest fan appears. ‘Whatever happens, we’ve simply got to hang on to Corbyn as Labour leader,’ booms Ukip leader Nigel Farage, striding through royton in mustard corduroys and a riding mac. If Ukip is to present itself as the viable alternative to Labour in northern towns like this, then it certainly helps to have a Labour leader whose default policy on terrorists is to issue a tea invitation rather than open fire.
‘time and again I meet people whose family have voted Labour since World War I, and they are just appalled by Corbyn’s views on the Ira and the armed Forces,’ says Mr Farage.
Keith has a moan about integration. this week’s twitter photo of a Labour rally for asian voters at which the audience was segregated into men and women has been a flashpoint here. ‘It just shows the hypocrisy of a party that preaches equality and then does the opposite,’ snorts Mr Farage.
Labour backers insist the photo is misleading, as it does not show that there was also a mixed section of audience. But as the picture was posted by a Labour MP — presumably to show off the multi-cultural credentials of the campaign — sympathy is limited.
BeNeath the royton drizzle, Marilyn wants to know why injured ex-soldiers are ending up on the streets. ‘It doesn’t feel like our country any more,’ she says. It’s all music to the ears of Mr Farage and his candidate, John Bickley, a Mancunian businessman and serial campaigner. this is his fourth parliamentary election in two years. ‘We are very good at treating our own people very badly,’ says Mr Farage.
time and again, I meet defecting Labour voters, from the hairdressing salons of royton to the shopping precincts of Chadderton and Oldham. For some reason, they are particularly prevalent in cafes. Mr Farage is forever ordering cups of tea. If Ukip do triumph here, it would be an historic win. It’s still a tall order but no one has forgotten the way in which Scottish Labour was wiped out in May.
No wonder Labour activists prefer to campaign on the local track record of their candidate, council leader Jim McMahon, rather than their party leader at Westminster.
Mr McMahon could hardly shift much further from Mr Corbyn without clipping on a blue rosette. During the leadership race, he voted for Blairite Liz Kendall. Unlike his new leader, he is positively relishing the prospect of meeting the Queen later this month when he heads to London to pick up an OBe for services to Oldham.
he is ‘too busy’ to talk to the Mail, but I meet his campaign manager, neighbouring Labour MP andrew Gwynne, who insists that the Labour vote is holding up. he concedes that the verdict among local Labour supporters on Mr Corbyn is ‘mixed’, but says those who might have concerns about some of Mr Corbyn’s more eccentric views are reassured that they are not necessarily shared by Jim McMahon.
‘We have never shied away from the fact Jeremy is our leader,’ he says. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. It hasn’t helped that Mr Corbyn has been virtually absent from this campaign. aside from a quick visit to launch the Labour effort weeks ago, he has not set foot in Oldham.
For an Opposition leader whose party is defending a large majority in a still winnable seat, that is extraordinary. Pre- empting the possibility of an embarrassing result, his loyal lieutenant Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell was in town at the weekend explaining that bad weather could deter Labour folk from venturing out to vote. the weather is, indeed, vile here in this gateway to the Pennines.
But a tropical heatwave would not avert this slump in Labour’s appeal. What was particularly telling was Mr McDonnell’s reference to Ukip as ‘an evil force within society’. Such extreme talk, from the architects of ‘the new politics’, shows how rattled Labour high command feels here.
UKIP’S John Bickley responded in kind at a debate on tuesday night by producing documents to show that his Labour opponent is a director of a property company whose parent company is based in Luxembourg, the low-tax jurisdiction favoured by the likes of amazon. Mr McMahon insisted that he was ‘ not aware of any tax avoidance’ by the company involved.
What will be crucial for Labour is the one section of the electorate which seems utterly faithful to the cause — the 20 per cent of voters with Bangladeshi or Pakistani heritage.
‘everyone round here is Labour and you won’t hear a word against Jim,’ says Mehzabin Yusuf, 18, serving in the family supermarket just up from Oldham’s Central Mosque.
a few doors down at the Sabah cafe, banker Mustafizur rahman, 29, is adamant Mr McMahon will win. ‘People aren’t voting on what Corbyn thinks — though I voted for him, and I am a banker! they are voting on local issues.’
Dr Mohammed Shah Newaz, 45, says that he has already voted by post. For Labour? ‘Not this time. I usually do, but I don’t want them to take us for granted so I voted tory to get the majority down just a bit.’
Yet, on one subject, they are as one with Mr Farage. ‘I do think we have a problem with europeans coming in for benefits without doing any work,’ says Mehzabin. ‘My grandad and my dad worked all their lives and paid their taxes, and now these eastern europeans come in without paying any tax and expect benefits,’ says Mohammed aziz, 36, at the Sabah cafe. ‘and they are so arrogant, barging in front of you in tesco.’
But doesn’t community cohesion work both ways? What about that segregated meeting?
‘I don’t have a problem with that,’ says Dr Newaz. ‘Older women may find it more comfortable to sit together — but at least they turned up. My mother would probably prefer to sit with the other women. My daughter would not. It’s no big deal.’
It’s clear that Mr Corbyn’s unpopularity is doing Ukip a favour here in Oldham but surely, in national terms, the Labour leader is much more of a boon for David Cameron?
‘I don’t know,’ says Mr Farage. ‘But you’ve got to hand it to the Monster raving Loony Party candidate here. he’s only got one policy but it’s brilliant: keep the Falklands and give Corbyn to argentina!’