I expect Eddie’s men to win with ease ... as long as Owen plays!
Scotland are not in a position to cope with England’s power up front
WHEN I started writing this column I was confident of a comprehensive England win over Scotland, despite the very real progress the visitors have made in recent months.
But the developing story of Owen Farrell’s possible withdrawal through injury alters things dramatically.
Make no mistake, if Farrell doesn’t play it could be very close indeed. He is that important. His absence really would put the cat among the pigeons and put an extra bounce in Scottish steps. The fact England will be leaving the decision until as late as possible speaks volumes.
If Farrell fails his fitness test, England lose four players in one. He is arguably the best big-match goalkicker in the game, he’s the second playmaker who relaxes George Ford, he’s the defensive organiser in the backs and he’s an indomitable individual who epitomises the heart and soul of the team.
With no Farrell, Ford becomes the main playmaker, decision-maker and goal-kicker while Mike Brown must be aware of the changed circumstances and offer himself considerably more as a second kicking option out of hand. As Farrell’s replacement I would have gone for the in-form Henry Slade, who is a more like-for-like option than Ben Te’o.
Whatever happens, the dynamic of the England back division would change against a confident Scotland side, so today’s late fitness test will be one of the more crucial moments in Eddie Jones’s 15-month tenure.
Last night the signs were looking more promising and for the moment I’m working on the assumption Farrell plays, in which case I’d be confident of England producing their best performance of the Six Nations to date.
England, as just about every critic has been telling them recently, haven’t fired properly in the Six Nations so far, but they will know that themselves and will be quietly seething. Yes, they have won three games but in performance terms they have been poor to middling and not done themselves justice. This wonderful winning run under Eddie will come to an abrupt stop unless they up their game, starting today.
They will also be angry at the criticism they copped after that rather bizarre Italy game. Let’s not waste any more time going over the desirability or not of Italy’s tactics, the fact is England reacted very slowly and for a considerable stretch of the game were embarrassed on their own patch, in front of their own fans and the watching TV millions.
The rugby world rather enjoyed England’s confusion and apparent ignorance of the laws and that will have hurt.
As we discovered in the following days these tactics were not entirely novel and have been used occasionally by other sides round the world, indeed Wasps have used them and the England team included three Wasps forwards! After the match England defence coach Paul Gustard insisted there was a plan in place if ever England came up against such ‘anti-rucking’.
Given all that, England were incredibly slow to react and as a result their ‘ rugby intelligence’ and ability to think on their feet has been questioned. That is unfair — you don’t win 17 Test matches on the trot without being dialled in and bright — but on this one occasion England were found wanting. England will be looking to produce a super sharp, bright, clinical performance. And that’s what I am expecting — if Farrell plays.
I don’t believe the Scots are quite in the position — yet — to cope with England’s power game up front, especially at scrum time and the maul if England choose to employ that. France showed in Paris how it is possible to make Scotland suffer in the physicality stakes. England’s tight forwards have the edge and don’t forget, in reality, England play with an extra tight forward by using the versatility of Maro Itoje at blindside flanker.
In addition to back-row duties, the remarkable Itoje packs down at lock in the scrum, remains a go-to line-out jumper and uses his physique and strength to good effect in the tight. It’s going to be
tough going for the Scots but I’m still intrigued to see how their excellent back row go. I’ve been so impressed with Hamish Watson this season — an old- style scavenging dog of war on the openside — the impressive John Barclay and Ryan Wilson.
They have their work cut out today but they are a formidable unit, as are Scotland’s back three which is spearheaded by Stuart Hogg,Hogg who is enjoying another storming tournament. It’s a rare game where Hogg doesn’t leave us with some special memory.
Let’s conclude with England though. I’ve really enjoyed the almost total absence of ‘Lions talk’ emanating from the camp this season — in contrast to the Celts and Wales in particular where the obsession with winning a place on a Lions squad has often been to the detriment of the national side. It dilutes the ultimate, towering importance of the national team which must always take precedence.
Only this week Rob Howley was warning Wales players that their Lions places were at stake against Ireland last night. I know it’s difficult because the Welsh media is obsessed with the Lions and without a Championship on the line their attention will switch to the upcoming tour. But really it’s best to keep away from it.
Listen, it’s round four of the Six Nations, everybody will know deep down that quite a few Lions selections will be decided in the next eight days or so. But as a player you need to separate yourself from those thoughts.
Lions selection is a consequence of playing out of your skin for your country. It’s not a primary objective.
Country first, always. England’s only focus now must be beating Scotland. Then, if they can achieve that it will switch to beating Ireland, which would result in back- to-back Grand Slams. And if they can do that, the world-record run and a place in history will be theirs. That is England’s world at present. Nothing else matters.