How Mystic George got it wrong
CLAIM:
A vote to leave ‘would cause an immediate and profound economic shock’ which would ‘push the UK into recession’. Treasury analysis claimed the economy would ‘fall into recession, with four quarters of negative growth’.
REALITY:
False. The UK’s economic growth has remained positive for every quarter since the referendum, with Britain finishing the year as one of the fastest growing economies in the G7.
CLAIM:
Unemployment ‘would increase by around 500,000’ in the wake of a Brexit vote.
REALITY:
False. Britain’s employment rate has risen since the referendum. In the three months to January, unemployment fell to 4.7 per cent – the best rate since 1975.
CLAIM:
A Brexit vote ‘would immediately lead to an increase in the premium for lending to UK businesses and households’.
REALITY:
False. The Bank of England responded to the referendum result by cutting interest rates to a historic low of 0.25 per cent, where they have remained.
CLAIM:
Trading partners, including the US, are already negotiating with the EU. ‘Before they start negotia- tions with the UK they are likely to want those deals to conclude.’
REALITY:
False. The new US administration has indicated it will not proceed with a planned EU-US trade deal, but has said the UK will be ‘first in the line’ for a bilateral deal.
CLAIM:
A Brexit vote would lead to ‘a reduction in foreign investment’.
REALITY:
Likely to prove false. Investment figures for 2016 have not yet been published, but there have been a number of big foreign investments since the referendum.
CLAIM:
Britain would ‘lose preferential access to 53 markets’ with which the EU has trade deals, and these would ‘take years to renegotiate’.
REALITY:
Likely to prove false. Theresa May has said there is no reason why the UK cannot continue with the existing trade deals. Countries such as Mexico and Canada have said they want to strike quick trade deals with the UK.
CLAIM:
A vote to leave ‘would have an impact on our ability to affect the EU’s decision making’.
REALITY:
True. Ministers accept that the UK will not be at the table when Brussels draws up new regulations after Brexit.