Number of over-65s needing care set to leap 25% in a decade
‘Substantial implications’
THE NHS is set to be overwhelmed by a surge in elderly people needing care over the next decade, say experts.
The number of over-65s in England and Wales seeking treatment will grow by 25 per cent by 2025, according to a study published in the Lancet Public Health journal.
That will take the cared-for population in this age group to 2.8million, up 560,000 since 2015.
The report comes as Theresa May pledges to get to grips with social care funding.
She has said the Tories will cap care bills for the elderly. The amount has yet to be set but the policy will also mean that people stop paying care costs when their assets are down to £100,000.
Researchers at the Univer- sity of Liverpool, who made the latest predictions, said people need to start taking more responsibility for their health earlier in life to reduce this burden.
They called for urgent disease prevention policies aimed at improving diet, reducing drinking, helping smokers to quit, and targeting high blood pressure and physical inactivity. They warned that without a major change the NHS is to come under severe pressure.
Lead researcher Dr Maria Guzman- Castillo said: ‘ The implications of our predictions are substantial.
‘Spending on long-term care will need to increase considerably by 2025, which has serious implications for a cash-strapped NHS and an under-resourced social care system.
‘More cost- effective health and social care provision will be needed, such as increased availability of institutional care, and better financial support for family members providing informal and home care.’
The proportion of the population over 65 is expected to rise the researchers said. Overall, dementia is the biggest disability threat, with rates expected to increase by 49 per cent among people aged 65 and over. In 2025, an estimated 699,000 people in England and Wales are likely to require dementia care, compared with 468,000 in 2015.
Professor Helen Stokes-Lampard, chairman of the Royal College of GPs, said: ‘It’s a great testament to medical research, and the NHS, that we are living longer – but we need to ensure that our patients are living longer with a good quality of life.
‘For this to happen, we need a properly funded health and social care sector. But as well as more resources, we agree with this study that prevention of chronic diseases that can have a serious effect on quality of life is key, and this is something for which we all bear responsibility.’