Controversial poll predicts that Tories could lose their majority
THERESA May could lose her overall majority in next week’s election, according to a shock new poll.
The first constituency-by-constituency estimate of the result by YouGov suggests the Tories could lose 0 seats and Labour could gain 30.
It would mean the Conservatives falling short of an overall majority by 16.
This would be a catastrophic outcome for the Prime Minister, who called the election when the polls were massively in her favour.
Last night YouGov stuck by its controversial new modelling technique which had produced the result. But sources in both main parties cast doubt on the findings. Mrs May has taken to repeatedly warning that if she loses just six seats, she would lose her majority – handing the keys of No 10 to Jeremy Corbyn.
YouGov’s model puts the Tories on course to win 310 seats – down from the 330 they had when the election was called. Labour would get 57 – up from
9, while the Liberal Democrats would gain one to ten.
The modelling allows for big varia- tions, suggesting the Tories could get as high as 345 – up 15 – and as low as 74.
The results would still make it harder for Mr Corbyn to become Prime Minister than Mrs May.
YouGov admitted the results were controversial, pointing to significant ‘churn’ in voting intentions.
But the company’s chief executive Stephan Shakespeare said the model had been publicly tested during the EU referendum campaign – and always showed Leave ahead.
The model is based on 50,0000 interviews over the course of a week. Last night both Tories and Labour cast doubt over the findings. And pollsters such as ComRes and ICM both report that the Conservatives are still well ahead.