Con­tro­ver­sial poll pre­dicts that Tories could lose their ma­jor­ity

Daily Mail - - News - By Daniel Martin Pol­icy Ed­i­tor

THERESA May could lose her over­all ma­jor­ity in next week’s elec­tion, ac­cord­ing to a shock new poll.

The first con­stituency-by-con­stituency es­ti­mate of the re­sult by YouGov sug­gests the Tories could lose 0 seats and Labour could gain 30.

It would mean the Con­ser­va­tives fall­ing short of an over­all ma­jor­ity by 16.

This would be a cat­a­strophic out­come for the Prime Min­is­ter, who called the elec­tion when the polls were mas­sively in her favour.

Last night YouGov stuck by its con­tro­ver­sial new mod­el­ling tech­nique which had pro­duced the re­sult. But sources in both main par­ties cast doubt on the find­ings. Mrs May has taken to re­peat­edly warn­ing that if she loses just six seats, she would lose her ma­jor­ity – hand­ing the keys of No 10 to Jeremy Cor­byn.

YouGov’s model puts the Tories on course to win 310 seats – down from the 330 they had when the elec­tion was called. Labour would get 57 – up from

9, while the Lib­eral Democrats would gain one to ten.

The mod­el­ling al­lows for big varia- tions, sug­gest­ing the Tories could get as high as 345 – up 15 – and as low as 74.

The re­sults would still make it harder for Mr Cor­byn to be­come Prime Min­is­ter than Mrs May.

YouGov ad­mit­ted the re­sults were con­tro­ver­sial, point­ing to sig­nif­i­cant ‘churn’ in vot­ing in­ten­tions.

But the com­pany’s chief ex­ec­u­tive Stephan Shake­speare said the model had been pub­licly tested dur­ing the EU ref­er­en­dum cam­paign – and al­ways showed Leave ahead.

The model is based on 50,0000 in­ter­views over the course of a week. Last night both Tories and Labour cast doubt over the find­ings. And poll­sters such as ComRes and ICM both re­port that the Con­ser­va­tives are still well ahead.

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