Pollsters pour scorn on claim that May could lose 20 seats
POLLING firm YouGov was facing scrutiny last night over its shock poll predicting Theresa May is on course to lose next week’s election.
The pound fell overnight after the survey for The Times newspaper predicted that the Tories would lose 20 seats, wiping out Mrs May’s Commons majority.
Mrs May yesterday played down the findings, which are out of step with every other election poll.
Speaking during a visit to Plymouth, Mrs May said: ‘The only poll that matters is the one that’s going to take place on June 8 and then people will have a choice as to who they want to see as leader.’
YouGov, which infamously got the 2015 election wrong by overestimating support for Ed Miliband, is under fire from election experts and other polling firms.
Tory campaign guru Jim Messina, who helped mastermind Barack Obama’s victories, challenged YouGov general manager Ben Leet to a bet over the prediction.
In a message on Twitter, he said: ‘Spent the day laughing at yet another stupid poll from YouGov. Hey Ben Leet, do you want to bet for charity?’
Michael Moszynski, a former Tory campaign adviser, said: ‘You would have more success predicting elections by tossing a coin than looking at YouGov’s projections.’
Rival pollsters also queried the findings. Andrew Hawkins, of ComRes, said: ‘If voters behave the way they broadly did in 2015 then the Conservatives remain on track for a 100-plus majority. That seems, on present assumptions, the most likely outcome.’ Former Labour pollster Deborah Mattinson described the findings as ‘brave stuff’.
YouGov co-founder Stephan Shakespeare claimed the findings were conducted using the most sophisticated analysis ever deployed, based on ‘multilevel regression and post- stratification analysis’. It predicts how voters will switch between parties and how likely they are to vote. Data from 7,000 voters is then extrapolated across the UK’s 650 constituencies.
But the method means the sample size is often tiny and throws up unlikely results.
For example, it suggests that Sir Hugo Swire will lose the Tory seat of East Devon, despite having a majority of more than 9,000.